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icon for What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
Keuangan·Sembunyikan Dari Baru

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

icon for What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
Keuangan·Sembunyikan Dari Baru

What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

>$8,000 29%

$7,500-$8,000 23%

$7,000-$7,500 22%

$6,500-$7,000 11%

Polymarket

$41,371 Vol.

>$8,000 29%

$7,500-$8,000 23%

$7,000-$7,500 22%

$6,500-$7,000 11%

Polymarket

$41,371 Vol.

<$6,000

$21,017 Vol.

6%

$6,000-$6,500

$2,365 Vol.

6%

$6,500-$7,000

$4,577 Vol.

11%

$7,000-$7,500

$2,726 Vol.

22%

$7,500-$8,000

$4,204 Vol.

23%

>$8,000

$6,482 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth expectations, fueled by surging AI-related capital expenditures from hyperscalers, represent the primary driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (39%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026. With the index trading near 7,719 as of early September, consensus 2026 EPS estimates have risen sharply to reflect 20-24% year-over-year gains, supporting valuations amid resilient GDP, a stable labor market (August nonfarm payrolls +162,000, unemployment 4.1%), and broadening equity leadership. Sticky inflation and a Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% introduce downside risks reflected in the 22.5% odds for 7,500-8,000, while elevated Treasury yields near 4.77% on the 10-year note temper multiples. Upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key swing factors for these aggregated trader probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$41,371
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth expectations, fueled by surging AI-related capital expenditures from hyperscalers, represent the primary driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (39%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026. With the index trading near 7,719 as of early September, consensus 2026 EPS estimates have risen sharply to reflect 20-24% year-over-year gains, supporting valuations amid resilient GDP, a stable labor market (August nonfarm payrolls +162,000, unemployment 4.1%), and broadening equity leadership. Sticky inflation and a Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% introduce downside risks reflected in the 22.5% odds for 7,500-8,000, while elevated Treasury yields near 4.77% on the 10-year note temper multiples. Upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications remain key swing factors for these aggregated trader probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$41,371
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET

Sumber Resolusi

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 6 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah ">$8,000" di 39%, diikuti oleh "$7,500-$8,000" di 23%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 39¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 39% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" telah menghasilkan $41.4K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 6, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?," jelajahi 6 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" adalah ">$8,000" di 39%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 39% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "$7,500-$8,000" di 23%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.