Recent tariff adjustments from 2025 have prompted an unwinding of import front-loading in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and gold, narrowing the cumulative goods-and-services deficit 29.6% year-to-date through July 2026 versus the prior period, while AI-related capital goods imports—semiconductors, servers, and computing equipment—have surged and now dominate import growth. Monthly data show the July shortfall widening to $88.6 billion on stronger computer and semiconductor inflows alongside softer energy and gold exports, producing a $743.6 billion trailing twelve-month total. A resilient U.S. dollar, sustained domestic demand, and services surplus of roughly $31 billion monthly continue to anchor market-implied odds, with the 800–900 billion bin holding a narrow lead at 34% over the 700–800 billion range at 26%, reflecting uncertainty around the durability of AI import momentum versus normalizing tariff effects.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$24,707 Vol.
$24,707 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
29%
800–900B
34%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
3%
$24,707 Vol.
$24,707 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$715 Vol.
29%
800–900B
$1,845 Vol.
34%
900B–1T
$1,509 Vol.
13%
1T–1.1T
$1,572 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,215 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff adjustments from 2025 have prompted an unwinding of import front-loading in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and gold, narrowing the cumulative goods-and-services deficit 29.6% year-to-date through July 2026 versus the prior period, while AI-related capital goods imports—semiconductors, servers, and computing equipment—have surged and now dominate import growth. Monthly data show the July shortfall widening to $88.6 billion on stronger computer and semiconductor inflows alongside softer energy and gold exports, producing a $743.6 billion trailing twelve-month total. A resilient U.S. dollar, sustained domestic demand, and services surplus of roughly $31 billion monthly continue to anchor market-implied odds, with the 800–900 billion bin holding a narrow lead at 34% over the 700–800 billion range at 26%, reflecting uncertainty around the durability of AI import momentum versus normalizing tariff effects.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,707Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff adjustments from 2025 have prompted an unwinding of import front-loading in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and gold, narrowing the cumulative goods-and-services deficit 29.6% year-to-date through July 2026 versus the prior period, while AI-related capital goods imports—semiconductors, servers, and computing equipment—have surged and now dominate import growth. Monthly data show the July shortfall widening to $88.6 billion on stronger computer and semiconductor inflows alongside softer energy and gold exports, producing a $743.6 billion trailing twelve-month total. A resilient U.S. dollar, sustained domestic demand, and services surplus of roughly $31 billion monthly continue to anchor market-implied odds, with the 800–900 billion bin holding a narrow lead at 34% over the 700–800 billion range at 26%, reflecting uncertainty around the durability of AI import momentum versus normalizing tariff effects.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,707Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff adjustments from 2025 have prompted an unwinding of import front-loading in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and gold, narrowing the cumulative goods-and-services deficit 29.6% year-to-date through July 2026 versus the prior period, while AI-related capital goods imports—semiconductors, servers, and computing equipment—have surged and now dominate import growth. Monthly data show the July shortfall widening to $88.6 billion on stronger computer and semiconductor inflows alongside softer energy and gold exports, producing a $743.6 billion trailing twelve-month total. A resilient U.S. dollar, sustained domestic demand, and services surplus of roughly $31 billion monthly continue to anchor market-implied odds, with the 800–900 billion bin holding a narrow lead at 34% over the 700–800 billion range at 26%, reflecting uncertainty around the durability of AI import momentum versus normalizing tariff effects.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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