Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new flagship smartphone each September drives the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this predictable annual cycle for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 slated for 2025 paving the way for its successor amid steady supply chain activity and component sourcing. While realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory delays in key regions, or technical hurdles in areas like advanced AI capabilities or hardware redesigns could theoretically shift timelines, these remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and current development momentum. Traders view the standard schedule as highly reliable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui>99% peluang
$251,953 Vol.
$251,953 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
>99% peluang
$251,953 Vol.
$251,953 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new flagship smartphone each September drives the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this predictable annual cycle for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 slated for 2025 paving the way for its successor amid steady supply chain activity and component sourcing. While realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory delays in key regions, or technical hurdles in areas like advanced AI capabilities or hardware redesigns could theoretically shift timelines, these remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and current development momentum. Traders view the standard schedule as highly reliable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$251,953Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new flagship smartphone each September drives the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this predictable annual cycle for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 slated for 2025 paving the way for its successor amid steady supply chain activity and component sourcing. While realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory delays in key regions, or technical hurdles in areas like advanced AI capabilities or hardware redesigns could theoretically shift timelines, these remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and current development momentum. Traders view the standard schedule as highly reliable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,953Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of unveiling a new flagship smartphone each September drives the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has followed this predictable annual cycle for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 slated for 2025 paving the way for its successor amid steady supply chain activity and component sourcing. While realistic risks such as major semiconductor shortages, regulatory delays in key regions, or technical hurdles in areas like advanced AI capabilities or hardware redesigns could theoretically shift timelines, these remain low-probability outliers given Apple's track record and current development momentum. Traders view the standard schedule as highly reliable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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