Traders assign a 96.8% implied probability against President Trump resigning before 2027, driven by the historical rarity of presidential resignations outside extreme circumstances and the lack of credible political or institutional pressure in the current term. Trump's demonstrated resilience through prior legal and electoral challenges, combined with firm Republican congressional support and no active impeachment proceedings, reinforces market expectations that he will serve out the period. Recent months have shown no major health disclosures, family developments, or scandals shifting this view. Even with such high consensus, low-probability catalysts like acute medical events, sudden legislative reversals, or unforeseen personal decisions could still alter the outcome before the 2027 threshold.