The closely contested 54.5% market-implied odds for no new Ebola country before October 1 reflect the rapid Bundibugyo outbreak's expansion within the Democratic Republic of Congo—now exceeding 5,800 confirmed cases across six provinces and 60 health zones—balanced against effective containment of limited imported cases in Uganda and France, where monitoring periods have ended without local transmission. High population mobility, displacement camps, insecurity, and cross-border trade routes near South Sudan and Rwanda create plausible pathways for spread, yet intensified surveillance, contact tracing, and frontline Ervebo vaccinations are slowing export risks. Upcoming catalysts include daily case reports from Ituri epicenters, any border screening positives, or October announcements on response scaling; a single confirmed export to a fresh nation would likely flip sentiment decisively toward Yes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEbola: nuovo paese confermato prima del 1° ottobre?
Ebola: nuovo paese confermato prima del 1° ottobre?
Sì
46% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ott 2026
Sì
46% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ott 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The closely contested 54.5% market-implied odds for no new Ebola country before October 1 reflect the rapid Bundibugyo outbreak's expansion within the Democratic Republic of Congo—now exceeding 5,800 confirmed cases across six provinces and 60 health zones—balanced against effective containment of limited imported cases in Uganda and France, where monitoring periods have ended without local transmission. High population mobility, displacement camps, insecurity, and cross-border trade routes near South Sudan and Rwanda create plausible pathways for spread, yet intensified surveillance, contact tracing, and frontline Ervebo vaccinations are slowing export risks. Upcoming catalysts include daily case reports from Ituri epicenters, any border screening positives, or October announcements on response scaling; a single confirmed export to a fresh nation would likely flip sentiment decisively toward Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$132Data di fine
2 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The closely contested 54.5% market-implied odds for no new Ebola country before October 1 reflect the rapid Bundibugyo outbreak's expansion within the Democratic Republic of Congo—now exceeding 5,800 confirmed cases across six provinces and 60 health zones—balanced against effective containment of limited imported cases in Uganda and France, where monitoring periods have ended without local transmission. High population mobility, displacement camps, insecurity, and cross-border trade routes near South Sudan and Rwanda create plausible pathways for spread, yet intensified surveillance, contact tracing, and frontline Ervebo vaccinations are slowing export risks. Upcoming catalysts include daily case reports from Ituri epicenters, any border screening positives, or October announcements on response scaling; a single confirmed export to a fresh nation would likely flip sentiment decisively toward Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$132Data di fine
2 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 54.5% market-implied odds for no new Ebola country before October 1 reflect the rapid Bundibugyo outbreak's expansion within the Democratic Republic of Congo—now exceeding 5,800 confirmed cases across six provinces and 60 health zones—balanced against effective containment of limited imported cases in Uganda and France, where monitoring periods have ended without local transmission. High population mobility, displacement camps, insecurity, and cross-border trade routes near South Sudan and Rwanda create plausible pathways for spread, yet intensified surveillance, contact tracing, and frontline Ervebo vaccinations are slowing export risks. Upcoming catalysts include daily case reports from Ituri epicenters, any border screening positives, or October announcements on response scaling; a single confirmed export to a fresh nation would likely flip sentiment decisively toward Yes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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