A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures already near +2.8 °C and ensemble forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records later in 2026. This oceanic warming, combined with persistently elevated baseline ocean heat content, is driving September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record, with daily global means running approximately 0.85 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and projected monthly anomalies clustering near 1.3–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus from ECMWF, GFDL SPEAR, and NOAA systems shows tight agreement on El Niño strengthening through fall, yet spread in exact global response and measurement timing creates the near-even odds across narrow bins. Upcoming weekly ENSO updates and final September reanalysis will likely refine the precise outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSettembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Settembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ott 2026
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 ott 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures already near +2.8 °C and ensemble forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records later in 2026. This oceanic warming, combined with persistently elevated baseline ocean heat content, is driving September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record, with daily global means running approximately 0.85 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and projected monthly anomalies clustering near 1.3–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus from ECMWF, GFDL SPEAR, and NOAA systems shows tight agreement on El Niño strengthening through fall, yet spread in exact global response and measurement timing creates the near-even odds across narrow bins. Upcoming weekly ENSO updates and final September reanalysis will likely refine the precise outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures already near +2.8 °C and ensemble forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records later in 2026. This oceanic warming, combined with persistently elevated baseline ocean heat content, is driving September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record, with daily global means running approximately 0.85 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and projected monthly anomalies clustering near 1.3–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus from ECMWF, GFDL SPEAR, and NOAA systems shows tight agreement on El Niño strengthening through fall, yet spread in exact global response and measurement timing creates the near-even odds across narrow bins. Upcoming weekly ENSO updates and final September reanalysis will likely refine the precise outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Data di fine
10 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the September 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperatures already near +2.8 °C and ensemble forecasts pointing to a peak exceeding prior records later in 2026. This oceanic warming, combined with persistently elevated baseline ocean heat content, is driving September 2026 toward the warmest such month on record, with daily global means running approximately 0.85 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline and projected monthly anomalies clustering near 1.3–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Model consensus from ECMWF, GFDL SPEAR, and NOAA systems shows tight agreement on El Niño strengthening through fall, yet spread in exact global response and measurement timing creates the near-even odds across narrow bins. Upcoming weekly ENSO updates and final September reanalysis will likely refine the precise outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti