A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6 °C as of late August 2026 and official outlooks assigning over 90% probability of a very strong peak in October–December, supplies the dominant short-term boost to global surface temperatures. This overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, producing model blends and early-month observations that place August 2026 near or above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in several reanalyses. Trader consensus at 87% on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects the convergence of these factors plus the month’s near-completion, while residual uncertainty around final dataset adjustments and ENSO teleconnections keeps lower-probability bins open for late revisions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAgosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC) (COLPI PIÙ ALTI)
Agosto 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC) (COLPI PIÙ ALTI)
1.38–1.41ºC 87%
1.42–1.45ºC 13%
1.34–1.37ºC 2.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$18,122 Vol.
$18,122 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
2%
1.38–1.41ºC
87%
1.42–1.45ºC
13%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 87%
1.42–1.45ºC 13%
1.34–1.37ºC 2.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$18,122 Vol.
$18,122 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$2,844 Vol.
2%
1.38–1.41ºC
$3,980 Vol.
87%
1.42–1.45ºC
$7,838 Vol.
13%
>1.45ºC
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6 °C as of late August 2026 and official outlooks assigning over 90% probability of a very strong peak in October–December, supplies the dominant short-term boost to global surface temperatures. This overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, producing model blends and early-month observations that place August 2026 near or above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in several reanalyses. Trader consensus at 87% on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects the convergence of these factors plus the month’s near-completion, while residual uncertainty around final dataset adjustments and ENSO teleconnections keeps lower-probability bins open for late revisions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$18,122Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6 °C as of late August 2026 and official outlooks assigning over 90% probability of a very strong peak in October–December, supplies the dominant short-term boost to global surface temperatures. This overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, producing model blends and early-month observations that place August 2026 near or above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in several reanalyses. Trader consensus at 87% on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects the convergence of these factors plus the month’s near-completion, while residual uncertainty around final dataset adjustments and ENSO teleconnections keeps lower-probability bins open for late revisions.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$18,122Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly strengthening El Niño event, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6 °C as of late August 2026 and official outlooks assigning over 90% probability of a very strong peak in October–December, supplies the dominant short-term boost to global surface temperatures. This overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, producing model blends and early-month observations that place August 2026 near or above 1.6 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in several reanalyses. Trader consensus at 87% on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin reflects the convergence of these factors plus the month’s near-completion, while residual uncertainty around final dataset adjustments and ENSO teleconnections keeps lower-probability bins open for late revisions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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