As of mid-September 2026, no novel pathogen has triggered a global pandemic despite an ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda that prompted a WHO public health emergency of international concern in May. The event has produced over 6,700 confirmed cases and roughly 3,200 deaths with a case fatality ratio near 48 percent, yet transmission remains largely confined to affected provinces through direct contact with bodily fluids. A separate multi-country mpox outbreak continues with moderate global risk per WHO assessments and over 1,000 monthly cases, primarily via sexual and household spread. These localized events, combined with routine surveillance data showing no exponential worldwide growth, underpin the 93.5 percent market-implied probability of no new pandemic this year. A rapid international expansion of Ebola or emergence of a high-transmissibility novel strain could alter the outlook.