Strengthening El Niño conditions, now projected by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with over 90% confidence to become very strong by late 2026, represent the main driver shifting trader focus toward potentially earlier first measurable snow in high-elevation western U.S. sites. Warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are steering altered storm tracks and cooler, wetter anomalies across parts of the northern Rockies and Intermountain West in September, where median first-snow dates historically fall before October per NOAA climatology. Current NWS forecasts show snow levels above roughly 7,000 feet in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, though widespread warmth elsewhere delays lower-elevation accumulation. Key upcoming releases include the Climate Prediction Center’s updated monthly outlooks and daily National Weather Service temperature and precipitation products that will refine short-term probabilities for 0.1-inch thresholds at specific elevations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPrima neve della stagione 2026

Buffalo, NY entro il 31 ottobre
55%

Denver, CO entro il 31 ottobre
64%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 31 ottobre
59%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 31 ottobre
53%

Boston, MA entro il 15 novembre
61%

Buffalo, NY entro il 15 novembre
89%

Chicago, IL entro il 15 novembre
63%

Denver, CO entro il 15 novembre
94%

Detroit, MI entro il 15 novembre
89%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 15 novembre
82%

Kansas City, MO entro il 15 novembre
30%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 15 novembre
88%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 15 novembre
59%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 15 novembre
87%

Boston, MA entro il 30 novembre
84%

Buffalo, NY entro il 30 novembre
91%

Chicago, IL entro il 30 novembre
78%

Cincinnati, OH entro il 30 novembre
83%

Dallas, TX entro il 30 novembre
11%

Denver, CO entro il 30 novembre
99%

Detroit, MI entro il 30 novembre
87%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 30 novembre
94%

Kansas City, MO entro il 30 novembre
84%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 30 novembre
93%

Nashville, TN entro il 30 novembre
29%

New York City, NY entro il 30 novembre
68%

Philadelphia, PA entro il 30 novembre
16%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 30 novembre
77%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 30 novembre
89%

St. Louis, MO entro il 30 novembre
75%

Washington, DC entro il 30 novembre
44%
$7,369 Vol.

Buffalo, NY entro il 31 ottobre
55%

Denver, CO entro il 31 ottobre
64%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 31 ottobre
59%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 31 ottobre
53%

Boston, MA entro il 15 novembre
61%

Buffalo, NY entro il 15 novembre
89%

Chicago, IL entro il 15 novembre
63%

Denver, CO entro il 15 novembre
94%

Detroit, MI entro il 15 novembre
89%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 15 novembre
82%

Kansas City, MO entro il 15 novembre
30%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 15 novembre
88%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 15 novembre
59%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 15 novembre
87%

Boston, MA entro il 30 novembre
84%

Buffalo, NY entro il 30 novembre
91%

Chicago, IL entro il 30 novembre
78%

Cincinnati, OH entro il 30 novembre
83%

Dallas, TX entro il 30 novembre
11%

Denver, CO entro il 30 novembre
99%

Detroit, MI entro il 30 novembre
87%

Indianapolis, IN entro il 30 novembre
94%

Kansas City, MO entro il 30 novembre
84%

Minneapolis, MN entro il 30 novembre
93%

Nashville, TN entro il 30 novembre
29%

New York City, NY entro il 30 novembre
68%

Philadelphia, PA entro il 30 novembre
16%

Pittsburgh, PA entro il 30 novembre
77%

Salt Lake City, UT entro il 30 novembre
89%

St. Louis, MO entro il 30 novembre
75%

Washington, DC entro il 30 novembre
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Strengthening El Niño conditions, now projected by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center with over 90% confidence to become very strong by late 2026, represent the main driver shifting trader focus toward potentially earlier first measurable snow in high-elevation western U.S. sites. Warmer equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are steering altered storm tracks and cooler, wetter anomalies across parts of the northern Rockies and Intermountain West in September, where median first-snow dates historically fall before October per NOAA climatology. Current NWS forecasts show snow levels above roughly 7,000 feet in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, though widespread warmth elsewhere delays lower-elevation accumulation. Key upcoming releases include the Climate Prediction Center’s updated monthly outlooks and daily National Weather Service temperature and precipitation products that will refine short-term probabilities for 0.1-inch thresholds at specific elevations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato

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