Traders assign a 99% probability against EU dissolution before 2027 due to the bloc's established institutional framework, ongoing policy coordination among member states, and absence of acute triggers such as coordinated Article 50 exits or systemic breakdown. Recent developments, including fiscal stability reports and responses to energy and geopolitical pressures, underscore the EU's capacity to manage internal divisions without collapse. Populist gains in some capitals introduce longer-term fragmentation risks, yet these have not produced the consensus or mechanisms required for rapid dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a severe synchronized economic shock, major escalation in external conflicts prompting mass withdrawals, or simultaneous far-right electoral victories in core states altering treaty commitments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
L'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
Sì
1% probabilità
$180,293 Vol.
$180,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$180,293 Vol.
$180,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 99% probability against EU dissolution before 2027 due to the bloc's established institutional framework, ongoing policy coordination among member states, and absence of acute triggers such as coordinated Article 50 exits or systemic breakdown. Recent developments, including fiscal stability reports and responses to energy and geopolitical pressures, underscore the EU's capacity to manage internal divisions without collapse. Populist gains in some capitals introduce longer-term fragmentation risks, yet these have not produced the consensus or mechanisms required for rapid dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a severe synchronized economic shock, major escalation in external conflicts prompting mass withdrawals, or simultaneous far-right electoral victories in core states altering treaty commitments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$180,293Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 99% probability against EU dissolution before 2027 due to the bloc's established institutional framework, ongoing policy coordination among member states, and absence of acute triggers such as coordinated Article 50 exits or systemic breakdown. Recent developments, including fiscal stability reports and responses to energy and geopolitical pressures, underscore the EU's capacity to manage internal divisions without collapse. Populist gains in some capitals introduce longer-term fragmentation risks, yet these have not produced the consensus or mechanisms required for rapid dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a severe synchronized economic shock, major escalation in external conflicts prompting mass withdrawals, or simultaneous far-right electoral victories in core states altering treaty commitments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$180,293Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99% probability against EU dissolution before 2027 due to the bloc's established institutional framework, ongoing policy coordination among member states, and absence of acute triggers such as coordinated Article 50 exits or systemic breakdown. Recent developments, including fiscal stability reports and responses to energy and geopolitical pressures, underscore the EU's capacity to manage internal divisions without collapse. Populist gains in some capitals introduce longer-term fragmentation risks, yet these have not produced the consensus or mechanisms required for rapid dissolution. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a severe synchronized economic shock, major escalation in external conflicts prompting mass withdrawals, or simultaneous far-right electoral victories in core states altering treaty commitments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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