Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed in ottobre?
Decisione della Fed in ottobre?
Nessun cambiamento 71%
Aumento di 25 punti base 27%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.4%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.1%
$974,542 Vol.
$974,542 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
3%
Nessun cambiamento
71%
Aumento di 25 punti base
27%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 71%
Aumento di 25 punti base 27%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.4%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.1%
$974,542 Vol.
$974,542 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$170,441 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$332,218 Vol.
3%
Nessun cambiamento
$180,051 Vol.
71%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$175,212 Vol.
27%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$116,619 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$974,542Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$974,542Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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