Recent Federal Reserve projections and economic data have anchored trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC's September 16 Summary of Economic Projections placed the median real GDP forecast at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, up slightly from June, while private forecasts from institutions such as U.S. Bank and TD Economics cluster near 2.1–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, below prior quarters, yet resilience in consumer spending, business investment tied to AI, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1% have supported the 2.0–2.5% range. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year prompted the FOMC's September rate hike, tempering expectations for stronger growth above 2.5%. Key upcoming releases include October inflation data and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2,0–2,5% 60%
>2,5% 20.4%
1,5–2,0% 12.2%
1,0–1,5% 6.3%
$70,772 Vol.
$70,772 Vol.
28 gen 2027
<0,5%
3%
0,5–1,0%
2%
1,0–1,5%
6%
1,5–2,0%
12%
2,0–2,5%
60%
>2,5%
20%
2,0–2,5% 60%
>2,5% 20.4%
1,5–2,0% 12.2%
1,0–1,5% 6.3%
$70,772 Vol.
$70,772 Vol.
28 gen 2027
<0,5%
$8,115 Vol.
3%
0,5–1,0%
$17,725 Vol.
2%
1,0–1,5%
$4,384 Vol.
6%
1,5–2,0%
$8,668 Vol.
12%
2,0–2,5%
$13,312 Vol.
60%
>2,5%
$18,568 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Federal Reserve projections and economic data have anchored trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC's September 16 Summary of Economic Projections placed the median real GDP forecast at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, up slightly from June, while private forecasts from institutions such as U.S. Bank and TD Economics cluster near 2.1–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, below prior quarters, yet resilience in consumer spending, business investment tied to AI, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1% have supported the 2.0–2.5% range. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year prompted the FOMC's September rate hike, tempering expectations for stronger growth above 2.5%. Key upcoming releases include October inflation data and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$70,772Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Federal Reserve projections and economic data have anchored trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC's September 16 Summary of Economic Projections placed the median real GDP forecast at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, up slightly from June, while private forecasts from institutions such as U.S. Bank and TD Economics cluster near 2.1–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, below prior quarters, yet resilience in consumer spending, business investment tied to AI, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1% have supported the 2.0–2.5% range. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year prompted the FOMC's September rate hike, tempering expectations for stronger growth above 2.5%. Key upcoming releases include October inflation data and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$70,772Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Federal Reserve projections and economic data have anchored trader sentiment around moderate 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC's September 16 Summary of Economic Projections placed the median real GDP forecast at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, up slightly from June, while private forecasts from institutions such as U.S. Bank and TD Economics cluster near 2.1–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, below prior quarters, yet resilience in consumer spending, business investment tied to AI, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1% have supported the 2.0–2.5% range. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year prompted the FOMC's September rate hike, tempering expectations for stronger growth above 2.5%. Key upcoming releases include October inflation data and the next FOMC meeting, which could refine these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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