Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the two-term incumbent, she secured over 91 percent in the August 2026 Democratic primary with minimal opposition, while Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader, advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. This consensus aligns with the district's voter composition across rural Oahu and neighbor islands. A narrow set of developments, such as an unforeseen scandal or significant national political realignment, could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
HI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$68,561 Vol.
$68,561 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jill Tokuda (D)
96%
Brenton Awa (R)
5%
$68,561 Vol.
$68,561 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jill Tokuda (D)
$43,219 Vol.
96%
Brenton Awa (R)
$25,341 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the two-term incumbent, she secured over 91 percent in the August 2026 Democratic primary with minimal opposition, while Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader, advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. This consensus aligns with the district's voter composition across rural Oahu and neighbor islands. A narrow set of developments, such as an unforeseen scandal or significant national political realignment, could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$68,561Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the two-term incumbent, she secured over 91 percent in the August 2026 Democratic primary with minimal opposition, while Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader, advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. This consensus aligns with the district's voter composition across rural Oahu and neighbor islands. A narrow set of developments, such as an unforeseen scandal or significant national political realignment, could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$68,561Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Jill Tokuda's commanding position in the HI-02 House race stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and prior election margins exceeding 30 points. As the two-term incumbent, she secured over 91 percent in the August 2026 Democratic primary with minimal opposition, while Republican nominee Brenton Awa, the state Senate minority leader, advanced unopposed. Forecasters across outlets rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. This consensus aligns with the district's voter composition across rural Oahu and neighbor islands. A narrow set of developments, such as an unforeseen scandal or significant national political realignment, could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current fundamentals indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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