Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, combined with his primary victory on August 8, 2026, where he secured roughly 60 percent against a progressive challenger. As the longtime incumbent, Case benefits from high name recognition, proven general election performance exceeding other Hawaii Democrats, and the absence of competitive Republican opposition beyond nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters across outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the structural barriers for challengers in such districts, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unforeseen scandals could still shift outcomes before ballots close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHI-01 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
HI-01 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$35,619 Vol.
$35,619 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,619 Vol.
$35,619 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 Vol.
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,465 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, combined with his primary victory on August 8, 2026, where he secured roughly 60 percent against a progressive challenger. As the longtime incumbent, Case benefits from high name recognition, proven general election performance exceeding other Hawaii Democrats, and the absence of competitive Republican opposition beyond nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters across outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the structural barriers for challengers in such districts, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unforeseen scandals could still shift outcomes before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,619Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, combined with his primary victory on August 8, 2026, where he secured roughly 60 percent against a progressive challenger. As the longtime incumbent, Case benefits from high name recognition, proven general election performance exceeding other Hawaii Democrats, and the absence of competitive Republican opposition beyond nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters across outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the structural barriers for challengers in such districts, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unforeseen scandals could still shift outcomes before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,619Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Case's commanding position in the HI-01 House election stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, rated D+13 by the Cook Political Report, combined with his primary victory on August 8, 2026, where he secured roughly 60 percent against a progressive challenger. As the longtime incumbent, Case benefits from high name recognition, proven general election performance exceeding other Hawaii Democrats, and the absence of competitive Republican opposition beyond nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters across outlets classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels reflects the structural barriers for challengers in such districts, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unforeseen scandals could still shift outcomes before ballots close.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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