United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for securing the most seats in the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma election, driven by its status as the dominant incumbent party, extensive administrative resources in a mixed electoral system, and recent polling gains from state-affiliated surveys such as VCIOM showing support rising toward 39 percent in late August. President Putin’s endorsement at the party’s pre-election congress and the approval of a national program focused on wages and infrastructure have reinforced its positioning. New People has emerged as the main secondary contender with growing but still distant support around 10–11 percent in recent polls, benefiting from its profile as a newer parliamentary force, though disqualification of parties like Yabloko has further narrowed the field. Other listed parties trail significantly in both surveys and implied probabilities.