Above-normal typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific during 2026, driven by anomalous sea surface temperatures and a weakening La Niña transitioning toward neutral or El Niño-like conditions, has positioned greater than eight China landfalls as the market favorite at 64.5% implied probability. Seasonal outlooks from the National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total tropical cyclones basin-wide with 7–9 or more landfalls in China—above the long-term average of roughly seven—due to enhanced genesis, stronger intensity, and westward/northwestward tracks favoring the South and East China coasts. Multiple systems have already struck in July and August, including Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel, aligning with near-normal monthly landfall rates but elevated overall season totals. Upcoming September peak-period model runs and observational updates on steering patterns will likely refine these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti cicloni tropicali arriveranno in Cina nel 2026?
Quanti cicloni tropicali arriveranno in Cina nel 2026?
Più di 8 64%
8 18%
7 13%
6 4.1%
$18,073 Vol.
$18,073 Vol.
30 giu 2027
Meno di 5
<1%
5
1%
6
4%
7
13%
8
18%
Più di 8
64%
Più di 8 64%
8 18%
7 13%
6 4.1%
$18,073 Vol.
$18,073 Vol.
30 giu 2027
Meno di 5
$1,238 Vol.
<1%
5
$4,224 Vol.
1%
6
$2,727 Vol.
4%
7
$1,579 Vol.
13%
8
$2,231 Vol.
18%
Più di 8
$6,075 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-normal typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific during 2026, driven by anomalous sea surface temperatures and a weakening La Niña transitioning toward neutral or El Niño-like conditions, has positioned greater than eight China landfalls as the market favorite at 64.5% implied probability. Seasonal outlooks from the National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total tropical cyclones basin-wide with 7–9 or more landfalls in China—above the long-term average of roughly seven—due to enhanced genesis, stronger intensity, and westward/northwestward tracks favoring the South and East China coasts. Multiple systems have already struck in July and August, including Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel, aligning with near-normal monthly landfall rates but elevated overall season totals. Upcoming September peak-period model runs and observational updates on steering patterns will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Mercato aperto: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$18,073Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-normal typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific during 2026, driven by anomalous sea surface temperatures and a weakening La Niña transitioning toward neutral or El Niño-like conditions, has positioned greater than eight China landfalls as the market favorite at 64.5% implied probability. Seasonal outlooks from the National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total tropical cyclones basin-wide with 7–9 or more landfalls in China—above the long-term average of roughly seven—due to enhanced genesis, stronger intensity, and westward/northwestward tracks favoring the South and East China coasts. Multiple systems have already struck in July and August, including Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel, aligning with near-normal monthly landfall rates but elevated overall season totals. Upcoming September peak-period model runs and observational updates on steering patterns will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$18,073Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Above-normal typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific during 2026, driven by anomalous sea surface temperatures and a weakening La Niña transitioning toward neutral or El Niño-like conditions, has positioned greater than eight China landfalls as the market favorite at 64.5% implied probability. Seasonal outlooks from the National Climate Center and Tropical Storm Risk project 24–29 total tropical cyclones basin-wide with 7–9 or more landfalls in China—above the long-term average of roughly seven—due to enhanced genesis, stronger intensity, and westward/northwestward tracks favoring the South and East China coasts. Multiple systems have already struck in July and August, including Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel, aligning with near-normal monthly landfall rates but elevated overall season totals. Upcoming September peak-period model runs and observational updates on steering patterns will likely refine these probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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