The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Jim Baird's established incumbency underpin trader consensus around his commanding position in the 2026 midterm contest. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60 percent in the May primary despite intraparty challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox emerged from a fragmented field. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, consistent with the incumbent's prior general-election margins above 60 percent and a substantial fundraising edge. An independent candidate appears on the November ballot but shows limited visibility. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national partisan swing could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIN-04 House Election Winner
IN-04 House Election Winner
$12,763 Vol.
$12,763 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jim Baird (R)
94%
Drew Cox (D)
6%
$12,763 Vol.
$12,763 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jim Baird (R)
$9,278 Vol.
94%
Drew Cox (D)
$3,485 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Jim Baird's established incumbency underpin trader consensus around his commanding position in the 2026 midterm contest. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60 percent in the May primary despite intraparty challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox emerged from a fragmented field. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, consistent with the incumbent's prior general-election margins above 60 percent and a substantial fundraising edge. An independent candidate appears on the November ballot but shows limited visibility. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national partisan swing could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$12,763Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Jim Baird's established incumbency underpin trader consensus around his commanding position in the 2026 midterm contest. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60 percent in the May primary despite intraparty challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox emerged from a fragmented field. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, consistent with the incumbent's prior general-election margins above 60 percent and a substantial fundraising edge. An independent candidate appears on the November ballot but shows limited visibility. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national partisan swing could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,763Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The district's R+15 Partisan Voter Index and Jim Baird's established incumbency underpin trader consensus around his commanding position in the 2026 midterm contest. Baird secured the Republican nomination with over 60 percent in the May primary despite intraparty challengers, while Democrat Drew Cox emerged from a fragmented field. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Safe Republican, consistent with the incumbent's prior general-election margins above 60 percent and a substantial fundraising edge. An independent candidate appears on the November ballot but shows limited visibility. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or unusually strong national partisan swing could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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