Lula’s campaign has repeatedly signaled reluctance to join multi-candidate televised debates ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first round, citing concerns over format quality and potential attacks from rivals. The president skipped the August 23 Band event and offered no confirmation for the canceled September 14 consortium debate, while allies continue to weigh participation only in the final pre-round Globo debate scheduled for October 1. Flávio Bolsonaro, the main challenger, has tied his own attendance to Lula’s presence, further narrowing options. Recent polling shows Lula maintaining a first-round lead, easing immediate pressure for unscripted confrontations. Traders therefore price the “no” outcome slightly above even as the remaining window for a late decision on the Globo stage keeps the market tightly balanced.