Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has shifted trader focus to the mid-September window after repeated timeline slips from July targets. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, already pre-trained and supplemented with SpaceX engineering data, sits just days from readiness while Meta and OpenAI prepare competing updates this month. This produces the tight cluster of probabilities across September 15–18, reflecting uncertainty over final polishing days rather than major barriers. Traders weigh xAI’s pattern of incremental delays against the model’s claimed advantages in real-world engineering benchmarks and token efficiency, with no official xAI model card or API listing yet confirming exact rollout criteria.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNext Grok Model (4.7+) rilasciato il...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) rilasciato il...?
16 settembre 38.6%
15 settembre 37.9%
17 settembre 37.7%
12 settembre 31.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 set 2026
12 settembre
32%
13 settembre
35%
14 settembre
33%
15 settembre
38%
16 settembre
39%
17 settembre
38%
18 settembre
37%
19 settembre
1%
20 settembre
<1%
21 settembre
<1%
22 settembre
3%
23 settembre
6%
24 settembre
3%
25 settembre
<1%
26 settembre
<1%
27 settembre
<1%
28 settembre
7%
29 settembre
2%
30 settembre
1%
Nessuna versione entro il 30 settembre
<1%
16 settembre 38.6%
15 settembre 37.9%
17 settembre 37.7%
12 settembre 31.9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 set 2026
12 settembre
$558 Vol.
32%
13 settembre
$541 Vol.
35%
14 settembre
$205 Vol.
33%
15 settembre
$257 Vol.
38%
16 settembre
$215 Vol.
39%
17 settembre
$215 Vol.
38%
18 settembre
$437 Vol.
37%
19 settembre
$638 Vol.
1%
20 settembre
$523 Vol.
<1%
21 settembre
$518 Vol.
<1%
22 settembre
$353 Vol.
3%
23 settembre
$580 Vol.
6%
24 settembre
$353 Vol.
3%
25 settembre
$510 Vol.
<1%
26 settembre
$513 Vol.
<1%
27 settembre
$513 Vol.
<1%
28 settembre
$461 Vol.
7%
29 settembre
$387 Vol.
2%
30 settembre
$515 Vol.
1%
Nessuna versione entro il 30 settembre
$513 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has shifted trader focus to the mid-September window after repeated timeline slips from July targets. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, already pre-trained and supplemented with SpaceX engineering data, sits just days from readiness while Meta and OpenAI prepare competing updates this month. This produces the tight cluster of probabilities across September 15–18, reflecting uncertainty over final polishing days rather than major barriers. Traders weigh xAI’s pattern of incremental delays against the model’s claimed advantages in real-world engineering benchmarks and token efficiency, with no official xAI model card or API listing yet confirming exact rollout criteria.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$9,624Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has shifted trader focus to the mid-September window after repeated timeline slips from July targets. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, already pre-trained and supplemented with SpaceX engineering data, sits just days from readiness while Meta and OpenAI prepare competing updates this month. This produces the tight cluster of probabilities across September 15–18, reflecting uncertainty over final polishing days rather than major barriers. Traders weigh xAI’s pattern of incremental delays against the model’s claimed advantages in real-world engineering benchmarks and token efficiency, with no official xAI model card or API listing yet confirming exact rollout criteria.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,624Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has shifted trader focus to the mid-September window after repeated timeline slips from July targets. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, already pre-trained and supplemented with SpaceX engineering data, sits just days from readiness while Meta and OpenAI prepare competing updates this month. This produces the tight cluster of probabilities across September 15–18, reflecting uncertainty over final polishing days rather than major barriers. Traders weigh xAI’s pattern of incremental delays against the model’s claimed advantages in real-world engineering benchmarks and token efficiency, with no official xAI model card or API listing yet confirming exact rollout criteria.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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