OpenAI’s September 8 release of a Lean-formalized proof for finite-time singularity in the 3D Navier-Stokes equations under smooth forcing has anchored the 93% market-implied probability against retraction by year-end. The public repository and machine-verified formalization provide concrete artifacts that independent researchers can audit quickly, with no mathematical discrepancies reported in the initial review period. Ongoing questions center on research conduct and priority relative to related Euler-equation work rather than flaws in the claimed result itself. While a major independent error discovery or formal Clay Institute rejection could still prompt a correction, the combination of formal verification and absence of identified proof issues supports trader consensus that a full retraction remains unlikely absent new, decisive discrepancies.