Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area and his established incumbency advantages heading into the 2026 midterms. Traders view the structural barriers for Republican challenger Virginia McIntyre as substantial, with limited recent developments altering the balance. The implied probability aligns with historical patterns for similar seats, where sitting members typically retain strong edges absent major shifts. Late-cycle factors such as national political waves, candidate health or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among specific voting blocs could still influence the outcome before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-25
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera NY-25
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
3%
$33,113 Vol.
$33,113 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Joseph Morelle (D)
$22,758 Vol.
96%
Virginia McIntyre (R)
$10,354 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area and his established incumbency advantages heading into the 2026 midterms. Traders view the structural barriers for Republican challenger Virginia McIntyre as substantial, with limited recent developments altering the balance. The implied probability aligns with historical patterns for similar seats, where sitting members typically retain strong edges absent major shifts. Late-cycle factors such as national political waves, candidate health or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among specific voting blocs could still influence the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,113Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area and his established incumbency advantages heading into the 2026 midterms. Traders view the structural barriers for Republican challenger Virginia McIntyre as substantial, with limited recent developments altering the balance. The implied probability aligns with historical patterns for similar seats, where sitting members typically retain strong edges absent major shifts. Late-cycle factors such as national political waves, candidate health or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among specific voting blocs could still influence the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,113Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in the NY-25 House race, reflecting the district's consistent Democratic lean in the Rochester area and his established incumbency advantages heading into the 2026 midterms. Traders view the structural barriers for Republican challenger Virginia McIntyre as substantial, with limited recent developments altering the balance. The implied probability aligns with historical patterns for similar seats, where sitting members typically retain strong edges absent major shifts. Late-cycle factors such as national political waves, candidate health or scandal developments, or unusually high turnout among specific voting blocs could still influence the outcome before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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