Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
3% probabilità
$21,920 Vol.
$21,920 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
3% probabilità
$21,920 Vol.
$21,920 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$21,920Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,920Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 97% against an arrest before 2027 reflects the absence of any active criminal indictment or credible charges against the former president, combined with Supreme Court precedent on immunity for official acts during his term. Recent declassifications and referrals targeting Obama-era officials have prompted investigations into subordinates but have not produced new evidence sufficient for DOJ action against Obama himself, with statute-of-limitations and evidentiary barriers repeatedly cited. Institutional norms, Secret Service protections, and the compressed timeline through early 2027 further constrain realistic pathways. Late developments such as unforeseen indictments or court rulings could theoretically shift odds, though no such proceedings are underway.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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