The S&P 500, trading near 7,700 in early September 2026 after a 12.75% year-to-date advance and an August peak above 7,816, reflects trader consensus favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 39% implied probability. Robust second-quarter earnings beats—86% of reporting companies exceeded estimates—combined with projected 25%-plus EPS growth in the second half, driven by AI infrastructure spending, have supported upward revisions from firms like HSBC to an 8,100 year-end target. Recent strength in labor data and rising oil prices near $93 per barrel have lifted Treasury yields, introducing near-term volatility that tempers probabilities for the 7,500–8,000 range at 22%. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming inflation releases and corporate guidance that could shift the market-implied distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
Cosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
>$8.000 39%
$7.000-$7.500 22%
$7.500-$8.000 22%
$6.500-$7.000 10%
$41,611 Vol.
$41,611 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
7%
$6.000-$6.500
6%
$6.500-$7.000
10%
$7.000-$7.500
22%
$7.500-$8.000
22%
>$8.000
39%
>$8.000 39%
$7.000-$7.500 22%
$7.500-$8.000 22%
$6.500-$7.000 10%
$41,611 Vol.
$41,611 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
$21,149 Vol.
7%
$6.000-$6.500
$2,365 Vol.
6%
$6.500-$7.000
$4,577 Vol.
10%
$7.000-$7.500
$2,746 Vol.
22%
$7.500-$8.000
$4,293 Vol.
22%
>$8.000
$6,482 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The S&P 500, trading near 7,700 in early September 2026 after a 12.75% year-to-date advance and an August peak above 7,816, reflects trader consensus favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 39% implied probability. Robust second-quarter earnings beats—86% of reporting companies exceeded estimates—combined with projected 25%-plus EPS growth in the second half, driven by AI infrastructure spending, have supported upward revisions from firms like HSBC to an 8,100 year-end target. Recent strength in labor data and rising oil prices near $93 per barrel have lifted Treasury yields, introducing near-term volatility that tempers probabilities for the 7,500–8,000 range at 22%. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming inflation releases and corporate guidance that could shift the market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$41,611Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The S&P 500, trading near 7,700 in early September 2026 after a 12.75% year-to-date advance and an August peak above 7,816, reflects trader consensus favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 39% implied probability. Robust second-quarter earnings beats—86% of reporting companies exceeded estimates—combined with projected 25%-plus EPS growth in the second half, driven by AI infrastructure spending, have supported upward revisions from firms like HSBC to an 8,100 year-end target. Recent strength in labor data and rising oil prices near $93 per barrel have lifted Treasury yields, introducing near-term volatility that tempers probabilities for the 7,500–8,000 range at 22%. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming inflation releases and corporate guidance that could shift the market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$41,611Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The S&P 500, trading near 7,700 in early September 2026 after a 12.75% year-to-date advance and an August peak above 7,816, reflects trader consensus favoring an end-2026 close above 8,000 at 39% implied probability. Robust second-quarter earnings beats—86% of reporting companies exceeded estimates—combined with projected 25%-plus EPS growth in the second half, driven by AI infrastructure spending, have supported upward revisions from firms like HSBC to an 8,100 year-end target. Recent strength in labor data and rising oil prices near $93 per barrel have lifted Treasury yields, introducing near-term volatility that tempers probabilities for the 7,500–8,000 range at 22%. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming inflation releases and corporate guidance that could shift the market-implied distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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