Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency since 2009, strong fundraising exceeding $17 million, and consistent polling margins of roughly 18-20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia's Democratic lean, demonstrated in recent statewide results, and Warner's focus on issues like AI policy, healthcare affordability, and data center impacts bolster his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won the August 4 Republican primary, faces significant resource and name-recognition gaps. Recent debate cancellations have drawn campaign criticism but appear unlikely to alter fundamentals. A major national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen health event for the incumbent could still narrow the contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Senato della Virginia
Vincitore delle elezioni del Senato della Virginia
$23,148 Vol.
$23,148 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mark Warner (D)
96%
Bert Mizusawa (R)
5%
$23,148 Vol.
$23,148 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mark Warner (D)
$15,894 Vol.
96%
Bert Mizusawa (R)
$7,254 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency since 2009, strong fundraising exceeding $17 million, and consistent polling margins of roughly 18-20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia's Democratic lean, demonstrated in recent statewide results, and Warner's focus on issues like AI policy, healthcare affordability, and data center impacts bolster his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won the August 4 Republican primary, faces significant resource and name-recognition gaps. Recent debate cancellations have drawn campaign criticism but appear unlikely to alter fundamentals. A major national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen health event for the incumbent could still narrow the contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$23,148Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency since 2009, strong fundraising exceeding $17 million, and consistent polling margins of roughly 18-20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia's Democratic lean, demonstrated in recent statewide results, and Warner's focus on issues like AI policy, healthcare affordability, and data center impacts bolster his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won the August 4 Republican primary, faces significant resource and name-recognition gaps. Recent debate cancellations have drawn campaign criticism but appear unlikely to alter fundamentals. A major national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen health event for the incumbent could still narrow the contest.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$23,148Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Mark Warner holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability, driven by his incumbency since 2009, strong fundraising exceeding $17 million, and consistent polling margins of roughly 18-20 points over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa. Virginia's Democratic lean, demonstrated in recent statewide results, and Warner's focus on issues like AI policy, healthcare affordability, and data center impacts bolster his position ahead of the November 3 general election. Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who won the August 4 Republican primary, faces significant resource and name-recognition gaps. Recent debate cancellations have drawn campaign criticism but appear unlikely to alter fundamentals. A major national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen health event for the incumbent could still narrow the contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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