James Walkinshaw's position as the heavily favored incumbent in Virginia's 11th Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic performance, including his roughly 50-point margin in the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. The district, encompassing much of Fairfax County and northern Virginia suburbs with large federal workforce populations, carries solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the November 2026 general election, leaving Walkinshaw to face Republican Arthur Purves and a Green Party candidate. Walkinshaw holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $1 million, while trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him a 97.3% implied probability. A major unforeseen development such as a significant scandal or national political shift would be required to alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera VA-11
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera VA-11
$28,286 Vol.
$28,286 Vol.
2 nov 2026
James Walkinshaw (D)
97%
Arthur Purves (R)
<1%
$28,286 Vol.
$28,286 Vol.
2 nov 2026
James Walkinshaw (D)
$16,650 Vol.
97%
Arthur Purves (R)
$11,636 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw's position as the heavily favored incumbent in Virginia's 11th Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic performance, including his roughly 50-point margin in the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. The district, encompassing much of Fairfax County and northern Virginia suburbs with large federal workforce populations, carries solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the November 2026 general election, leaving Walkinshaw to face Republican Arthur Purves and a Green Party candidate. Walkinshaw holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $1 million, while trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him a 97.3% implied probability. A major unforeseen development such as a significant scandal or national political shift would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$28,286Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).James Walkinshaw's position as the heavily favored incumbent in Virginia's 11th Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic performance, including his roughly 50-point margin in the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. The district, encompassing much of Fairfax County and northern Virginia suburbs with large federal workforce populations, carries solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the November 2026 general election, leaving Walkinshaw to face Republican Arthur Purves and a Green Party candidate. Walkinshaw holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $1 million, while trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him a 97.3% implied probability. A major unforeseen development such as a significant scandal or national political shift would be required to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,286Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...James Walkinshaw's position as the heavily favored incumbent in Virginia's 11th Congressional District reflects the area's consistent Democratic performance, including his roughly 50-point margin in the September 2025 special election to succeed the late Rep. Gerry Connolly. The district, encompassing much of Fairfax County and northern Virginia suburbs with large federal workforce populations, carries solid-to-safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Primaries for both parties were canceled ahead of the November 2026 general election, leaving Walkinshaw to face Republican Arthur Purves and a Green Party candidate. Walkinshaw holds a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $1 million, while trader consensus on Polymarket assigns him a 97.3% implied probability. A major unforeseen development such as a significant scandal or national political shift would be required to alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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