Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and his prior performance. The eastern Washington district, which includes Spokane, has a partisan voting index favoring Republicans, and Baumgartner defeated the same Democratic opponent by 21 points in 2024. He advanced comfortably through the August 4 top-two primary with nearly half the vote, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $1.7 million and endorsements from party leadership. Democrat Carmela Conroy, who also advanced from the primary, faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have held the seat for decades, though she has improved her campaign resources compared to the previous cycle. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similarly rated districts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWA-05 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
WA-05 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$55,855 Vol.
$55,855 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Michael Baumgartner (R)
81%
Carmela Conroy (D)
19%
$55,855 Vol.
$55,855 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Michael Baumgartner (R)
$22,363 Vol.
81%
Carmela Conroy (D)
$33,492 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and his prior performance. The eastern Washington district, which includes Spokane, has a partisan voting index favoring Republicans, and Baumgartner defeated the same Democratic opponent by 21 points in 2024. He advanced comfortably through the August 4 top-two primary with nearly half the vote, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $1.7 million and endorsements from party leadership. Democrat Carmela Conroy, who also advanced from the primary, faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have held the seat for decades, though she has improved her campaign resources compared to the previous cycle. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similarly rated districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$55,855Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and his prior performance. The eastern Washington district, which includes Spokane, has a partisan voting index favoring Republicans, and Baumgartner defeated the same Democratic opponent by 21 points in 2024. He advanced comfortably through the August 4 top-two primary with nearly half the vote, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $1.7 million and endorsements from party leadership. Democrat Carmela Conroy, who also advanced from the primary, faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have held the seat for decades, though she has improved her campaign resources compared to the previous cycle. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similarly rated districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$55,855Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a strong position in Washington’s 5th Congressional District heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat’s Republican lean and his prior performance. The eastern Washington district, which includes Spokane, has a partisan voting index favoring Republicans, and Baumgartner defeated the same Democratic opponent by 21 points in 2024. He advanced comfortably through the August 4 top-two primary with nearly half the vote, backed by substantial fundraising exceeding $1.7 million and endorsements from party leadership. Democrat Carmela Conroy, who also advanced from the primary, faces structural challenges in a district where Republicans have held the seat for decades, though she has improved her campaign resources compared to the previous cycle. Trader consensus aligns with historical base rates for incumbents in similarly rated districts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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