Ongoing drought across Central and Eastern Europe has driven Danube flows to roughly 1,500–1,600 m³/s at key gauges—well below multiannual August averages near 3,900 m³/s—with exposed sandbanks, narrowed channels, and navigation restrictions persisting into late August 2026. Short-term forecasts show minimal catchment rainfall and only modest near-term rises before levels stabilize or dip again, leaving trader consensus split across September and October windows as the most probable recovery periods. The tight distribution among leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over the timing and volume of seasonal precipitation needed to restore normal discharge, while the modest share assigned to no return by November 1 accounts for the possibility of extended dry conditions. A sustained rain event in upstream basins could accelerate recovery into the earlier September intervals, whereas continued deficits would shift probabilities toward October or later.