Apple’s decision to deprioritize a next-generation Vision Pro explains the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Multiple credible reports from May and June 2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, state that the company has placed the headset category “on ice,” canceling the lighter Vision Air project and redirecting resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Persistent challenges with the original model’s weight, cost, and mixed reception have required a fundamental redesign—such as relocating the processor externally—that cannot be completed before 2028 at the earliest. While an unexpected engineering breakthrough or intensified competitive pressure could accelerate timelines, the current development gap and supply-chain signals make a launch in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize a next-generation Vision Pro explains the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Multiple credible reports from May and June 2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, state that the company has placed the headset category “on ice,” canceling the lighter Vision Air project and redirecting resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Persistent challenges with the original model’s weight, cost, and mixed reception have required a fundamental redesign—such as relocating the processor externally—that cannot be completed before 2028 at the earliest. While an unexpected engineering breakthrough or intensified competitive pressure could accelerate timelines, the current development gap and supply-chain signals make a launch in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,024終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize a next-generation Vision Pro explains the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Multiple credible reports from May and June 2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, state that the company has placed the headset category “on ice,” canceling the lighter Vision Air project and redirecting resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Persistent challenges with the original model’s weight, cost, and mixed reception have required a fundamental redesign—such as relocating the processor externally—that cannot be completed before 2028 at the earliest. While an unexpected engineering breakthrough or intensified competitive pressure could accelerate timelines, the current development gap and supply-chain signals make a launch in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,024終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to deprioritize a next-generation Vision Pro explains the 94.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Multiple credible reports from May and June 2026, including Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, state that the company has placed the headset category “on ice,” canceling the lighter Vision Air project and redirecting resources toward AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Persistent challenges with the original model’s weight, cost, and mixed reception have required a fundamental redesign—such as relocating the processor externally—that cannot be completed before 2028 at the earliest. While an unexpected engineering breakthrough or intensified competitive pressure could accelerate timelines, the current development gap and supply-chain signals make a launch in the remaining months of 2026 highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問