Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD between 17% and 21%, reflecting steady gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader national momentum for the party after its strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt. Trader consensus around the 17-20% band aligns with averages from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey surveys showing the AfD competitive with the CDU and Linke in a fragmented field, while support for a push above 20% accounts for potential late mobilization or further erosion of centrist parties. The lower band below 17% carries limited probability given consistent double-digit readings and limited recent volatility specific to Berlin. The election date and firewall dynamics among other parties remain key resolution factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日17～20％ 51%
20％以上 31%
14〜17% 20%
14％未満 1.6%
$19,663 Vol.
$19,663 Vol.
2026/09/20
14％未満
2%
14〜17%
20%
17～20％
51%
20％以上
31%
17～20％ 51%
20％以上 31%
14〜17% 20%
14％未満 1.6%
$19,663 Vol.
$19,663 Vol.
2026/09/20
14％未満
$3,083 Vol.
2%
14〜17%
$4,220 Vol.
20%
17～20％
$4,258 Vol.
51%
20％以上
$8,103 Vol.
31%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD between 17% and 21%, reflecting steady gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader national momentum for the party after its strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt. Trader consensus around the 17-20% band aligns with averages from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey surveys showing the AfD competitive with the CDU and Linke in a fragmented field, while support for a push above 20% accounts for potential late mobilization or further erosion of centrist parties. The lower band below 17% carries limited probability given consistent double-digit readings and limited recent volatility specific to Berlin. The election date and firewall dynamics among other parties remain key resolution factors.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
音量
$19,663終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD between 17% and 21%, reflecting steady gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader national momentum for the party after its strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt. Trader consensus around the 17-20% band aligns with averages from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey surveys showing the AfD competitive with the CDU and Linke in a fragmented field, while support for a push above 20% accounts for potential late mobilization or further erosion of centrist parties. The lower band below 17% carries limited probability given consistent double-digit readings and limited recent volatility specific to Berlin. The election date and firewall dynamics among other parties remain key resolution factors.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$19,663終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place the AfD between 17% and 21%, reflecting steady gains from its 9.1% result in 2023 amid broader national momentum for the party after its strong performance in Saxony-Anhalt. Trader consensus around the 17-20% band aligns with averages from Infratest dimap, INSA, and Civey surveys showing the AfD competitive with the CDU and Linke in a fragmented field, while support for a push above 20% accounts for potential late mobilization or further erosion of centrist parties. The lower band below 17% carries limited probability given consistent double-digit readings and limited recent volatility specific to Berlin. The election date and firewall dynamics among other parties remain key resolution factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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