Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin state election place the SPD between 11% and 15%, with most late-August and early-September surveys clustering near 12-13%. This positioning reflects the party's continued decline from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election, as the junior partner in the CDU-SPD coalition faces gains by Die Linke, the AfD, and the Greens. Traders' heavy weighting toward the 10-13% band aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of late-campaign momentum for SPD candidate Steffen Krach. A final surge into the 13-16% range remains possible but would require polling shifts not yet evident in the latest fieldwork.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日10〜13％ 56%
13〜16％ 29%
10％未満 10.3%
16％以上 5%
$13,450 Vol.
$13,450 Vol.
2026/09/20
10％未満
10%
10〜13％
56%
13〜16％
29%
16％以上
5%
10〜13％ 56%
13〜16％ 29%
10％未満 10.3%
16％以上 5%
$13,450 Vol.
$13,450 Vol.
2026/09/20
10％未満
$2,430 Vol.
10%
10〜13％
$4,310 Vol.
56%
13〜16％
$4,016 Vol.
29%
16％以上
$2,695 Vol.
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin state election place the SPD between 11% and 15%, with most late-August and early-September surveys clustering near 12-13%. This positioning reflects the party's continued decline from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election, as the junior partner in the CDU-SPD coalition faces gains by Die Linke, the AfD, and the Greens. Traders' heavy weighting toward the 10-13% band aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of late-campaign momentum for SPD candidate Steffen Krach. A final surge into the 13-16% range remains possible but would require polling shifts not yet evident in the latest fieldwork.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
音量
$13,450終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin state election place the SPD between 11% and 15%, with most late-August and early-September surveys clustering near 12-13%. This positioning reflects the party's continued decline from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election, as the junior partner in the CDU-SPD coalition faces gains by Die Linke, the AfD, and the Greens. Traders' heavy weighting toward the 10-13% band aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of late-campaign momentum for SPD candidate Steffen Krach. A final surge into the 13-16% range remains possible but would require polling shifts not yet evident in the latest fieldwork.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$13,450終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin state election place the SPD between 11% and 15%, with most late-August and early-September surveys clustering near 12-13%. This positioning reflects the party's continued decline from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election, as the junior partner in the CDU-SPD coalition faces gains by Die Linke, the AfD, and the Greens. Traders' heavy weighting toward the 10-13% band aligns with these consistent polling trends and the absence of late-campaign momentum for SPD candidate Steffen Krach. A final surge into the 13-16% range remains possible but would require polling shifts not yet evident in the latest fieldwork.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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