Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.0〜2.5％ 56%
>2.5％ 20.3%
1.5〜2.0％ 18.4%
0.5%未満 6.2%
$70,556 Vol.
$70,556 Vol.
2027/01/28
0.5%未満
6%
0.5～1.0％
1%
1.0〜1.5％
5%
1.5〜2.0％
18%
2.0〜2.5％
56%
>2.5％
20%
2.0〜2.5％ 56%
>2.5％ 20.3%
1.5〜2.0％ 18.4%
0.5%未満 6.2%
$70,556 Vol.
$70,556 Vol.
2027/01/28
0.5%未満
$8,071 Vol.
6%
0.5～1.0％
$17,681 Vol.
1%
1.0〜1.5％
$4,330 Vol.
5%
1.5〜2.0％
$8,654 Vol.
18%
2.0〜2.5％
$13,266 Vol.
56%
>2.5％
$18,553 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$70,556終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$70,556終了日
2027/01/29マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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