The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,272 Vol.
$25,272 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイク・クイグリー（民主党）
95%
トミー・ハンソン（共和党）
5%
$25,272 Vol.
$25,272 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイク・クイグリー（民主党）
$8,976 Vol.
95%
トミー・ハンソン（共和党）
$16,296 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$25,272終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,272終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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