**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus to finish second in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent AtlasIntel, PoderData, Datafolha, and Nexus surveys show President Lula da Silva (PT) ahead with 38–43 percent while Flávio (PL) holds 33–37 percent, placing him well clear of fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in the low-to-mid single digits. The Liberal Party nominee has consolidated right-wing support as the standard-bearer for Jair Bolsonaro’s base after his father’s ineligibility and conviction. The official campaign period, which began August 16 with free electoral broadcasts starting August 28, has not altered this ordering. Traders therefore price Flávio as the near-certain runner-up absent a late surge by any third candidate capable of overtaking him before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 86%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 11.8%
アウグスト・クーリー 1.7%
レナン・サントス <1%
$5,757,372 Vol.
$5,757,372 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
86%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
12%
アウグスト・クーリー
2%
レナン・サントス
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ロナルド・カイアド
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 86%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 11.8%
アウグスト・クーリー 1.7%
レナン・サントス <1%
$5,757,372 Vol.
$5,757,372 Vol.
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
86%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
12%
アウグスト・クーリー
2%
レナン・サントス
1%
ロメウ・ゼマ
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・ヘベロ
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
<1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ロナルド・カイアド
<1%
ジェラウド・アルキミン
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
エルデル・バルバリョ
<1%
テレーザ・クリスティナ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
リゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus to finish second in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent AtlasIntel, PoderData, Datafolha, and Nexus surveys show President Lula da Silva (PT) ahead with 38–43 percent while Flávio (PL) holds 33–37 percent, placing him well clear of fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in the low-to-mid single digits. The Liberal Party nominee has consolidated right-wing support as the standard-bearer for Jair Bolsonaro’s base after his father’s ineligibility and conviction. The official campaign period, which began August 16 with free electoral broadcasts starting August 28, has not altered this ordering. Traders therefore price Flávio as the near-certain runner-up absent a late surge by any third candidate capable of overtaking him before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問