Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルラ 63%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 32%
ヘルツ・ディアス 1.8%
パブロ・マルサウ 1.3%
$13,532 Vol.
$13,532 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
63%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
32%
ヘルツ・ディアス
2%
パブロ・マルサウ
1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
<1%
エジミウソン・コスタ
<1%
サマラ
<1%
レナン・サントス
<1%
獣医師ウィルソン・グラッシ
<1%
ゼマ
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
<1%
ルラ 63%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 32%
ヘルツ・ディアス 1.8%
パブロ・マルサウ 1.3%
$13,532 Vol.
$13,532 Vol.
2026/10/04
ルラ
$3,619 Vol.
63%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
$2,617 Vol.
32%
ヘルツ・ディアス
$935 Vol.
2%
パブロ・マルサウ
$1,124 Vol.
1%
ルイ・コスタ・ピメンタ
$640 Vol.
1%
ロナウド・カイアド
$627 Vol.
<1%
クラリアナ・バラオ
$357 Vol.
<1%
エジミウソン・コスタ
$343 Vol.
<1%
サマラ
$624 Vol.
<1%
レナン・サントス
$747 Vol.
<1%
獣医師ウィルソン・グラッシ
$561 Vol.
<1%
ゼマ
$641 Vol.
<1%
作家アウグスト・クーリ
$697 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
音量
$13,532終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
音量
$13,532終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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