Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 38%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Roberto Cláudio <1%
$216,098 Vol.
$216,098 Vol.
2026/10/04
Ciro Gomes
63%
Elmano de Freitas
38%
Eduardo Girão
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 63%
Elmano de Freitas 38%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Roberto Cláudio <1%
$216,098 Vol.
$216,098 Vol.
2026/10/04
Ciro Gomes
$102,096 Vol.
63%
Elmano de Freitas
$43,123 Vol.
38%
Eduardo Girão
$18,393 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$18,024 Vol.
<1%
カミロ・サンタナ
$16,424 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$18,039 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
音量
$216,098終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$216,098終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability on Polymarket, ahead of incumbent Elmano de Freitas at 37.5%, reflecting trader assessment of recent polling trends and alliance shifts ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Multiple early September surveys, including Datafolha and Quaest, show Ciro with 45-46% support compared to Elmano's 34-37%, while a Real Time Big Data poll recorded a technical tie at 43-46%. Ciro benefits from name recognition as a former governor, endorsements from center-right parties including PL and União Brasil, and a campaign emphasizing opposition to the PT-led state government. Elmano draws backing from Lula and the PT coalition for reelection but trails in several head-to-head simulations. Minor candidates remain under 2% across polls.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問