Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
2026/11/03
ダリン・ラフッド（共和党）
94%
ポール・ノリー（民主党）
7%
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
2026/11/03
ダリン・ラフッド（共和党）
$15,407 Vol.
94%
ポール・ノリー（民主党）
$23,585 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$38,992終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$38,992終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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