Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, after he relinquished the chairmanship to Kevin Warsh in May 2026. Traders price a low probability of an earlier exit largely because Powell has stated he intends to remain on the Board for an undetermined period to defend institutional independence following prior DOJ scrutiny of headquarters renovations and political pressure for lower rates. The probe has since been dropped, and Powell has maintained a low profile with no public signals of imminent departure. Market-implied odds reflect the high bar for removal absent cause under the Federal Reserve Act, limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC meetings or Senate confirmations, and the precedent of governors serving full staggered terms. Any shift would likely require new legal or political developments before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$447,657 Vol.
2026/12/31
12月31日
13%
$447,657 Vol.
12月31日
$161,066 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, after he relinquished the chairmanship to Kevin Warsh in May 2026. Traders price a low probability of an earlier exit largely because Powell has stated he intends to remain on the Board for an undetermined period to defend institutional independence following prior DOJ scrutiny of headquarters renovations and political pressure for lower rates. The probe has since been dropped, and Powell has maintained a low profile with no public signals of imminent departure. Market-implied odds reflect the high bar for removal absent cause under the Federal Reserve Act, limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC meetings or Senate confirmations, and the precedent of governors serving full staggered terms. Any shift would likely require new legal or political developments before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
音量
$447,657終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, after he relinquished the chairmanship to Kevin Warsh in May 2026. Traders price a low probability of an earlier exit largely because Powell has stated he intends to remain on the Board for an undetermined period to defend institutional independence following prior DOJ scrutiny of headquarters renovations and political pressure for lower rates. The probe has since been dropped, and Powell has maintained a low profile with no public signals of imminent departure. Market-implied odds reflect the high bar for removal absent cause under the Federal Reserve Act, limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC meetings or Senate confirmations, and the precedent of governors serving full staggered terms. Any shift would likely require new legal or political developments before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$447,657終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell’s 14-year term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 31, 2028, after he relinquished the chairmanship to Kevin Warsh in May 2026. Traders price a low probability of an earlier exit largely because Powell has stated he intends to remain on the Board for an undetermined period to defend institutional independence following prior DOJ scrutiny of headquarters renovations and political pressure for lower rates. The probe has since been dropped, and Powell has maintained a low profile with no public signals of imminent departure. Market-implied odds reflect the high bar for removal absent cause under the Federal Reserve Act, limited near-term catalysts such as FOMC meetings or Senate confirmations, and the precedent of governors serving full staggered terms. Any shift would likely require new legal or political developments before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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