Trader sentiment in the "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027" market reflects the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice probe into the Federal Reserve chair’s congressional testimony on headquarters renovation costs, with a federal judge ruling that prosecutors presented essentially zero evidence of criminal misconduct. The investigation, initially tied to cost overruns and viewed by some as leverage amid monetary policy disputes, was referred to the Fed inspector general without charges. Powell completed his term as chair in May and transitioned to the Board of Governors, with no active legal proceedings. While tail risks such as a revived probe or unrelated allegations remain theoretically possible, the absence of credible evidence or ongoing cases underpins the 96.8% implied probability for “No.”