Federal debt surpasses $40 trillion, raising concerns over fiscal sustainability

December Meeting dips to 7%4%

On September 4, reports highlighted that U.S. federal debt closed August above $40 trillion, the highest on record. This fiscal pressure could influence the Fed's policy decisions, but the immediate market reaction was cautious, contributing to a further decline in the probability of a December rate cut as the Fed balances inflation and debt concerns.

Markets price in low probability of Fed rate cut at September meeting

As of early September 2026, market analysis indicated that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut rates at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with some probability of a hike instead, reflecting persistent inflation and labor market strength. This sentiment kept the September Meeting outcome probability near zero.

Bank of Canada holds rates steady; US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices signal inflation trends

The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold rates and US inflation data on September 3 provided context for global monetary policy, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance and contributing to stable low cut probabilities for September and October meetings.

August U.S. employment report shows mixed signals with job losses and lower unemployment

December Meeting dips to 11%1%

The August employment report released on September 1 showed a decline in nonfarm payrolls but a slight improvement in the unemployment rate. This mixed labor market data suggested a softening economy but not enough to prompt an immediate Fed rate cut, dampening market expectations for cuts in the near term, especially for December.

Federal Reserve Maintains Steady Rates Through August 2026 Amid Mixed Economic Signals

December Meeting drops to 11%5%

The Fed continued to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% through August 2026, reflecting a cautious approach amid mixed inflation and labor market data. This ongoing pause contributed to the decline in market expectations for rate cuts in the December meeting window.

Fed's Kevin Warsh signals possible September rate hike at Jackson Hole

December Meeting dips to 11%1%

Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, emphasizing inflation risks and the potential need for a rate hike in September. This speech increased market expectations for higher rates, reducing the likelihood of a near-term cut and contributing to the decline in December meeting cut probabilities.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals potential rate hike amid stubborn inflation

December Meeting dips to 12%1%

At the Jackson Hole symposium on August 28, 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hinted at the possibility of rate hikes due to inflation remaining above target at 3.7%. This hawkish tone increased market caution and contributed to the decline in the probability of a September or October rate cut, shifting focus to the December Meeting.

Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 fall to historic lows

September Meeting dips to 1%1%

By late August 2026, market pricing for rate cuts at upcoming meetings, including September, had fallen to near zero, reflecting the Fed's firm stance on holding rates steady amid stable inflation and labor market data. This contributed to the very low probabilities for rate cuts in September and October meetings.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Delivers First Jackson Hole Speech as Chair

December Meeting dips to 11%1%

On August 28, 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first keynote at the Jackson Hole symposium, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy and emphasizing data dependency. This speech reinforced market expectations for a gradual easing path, influencing the December Meeting option price to decline further.

July PCE Inflation Data Shows Cooling Inflation at 3.3% Year-Over-Year

December Meeting dips to 12%2%

The July 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed headline inflation easing to 3.3% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June. This cooling inflation data supported market expectations for a Fed rate cut later in 2026, contributing to the decline in the December Meeting option price.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks outweigh employment concerns

December Meeting drops to 31%8%

Governor Lisa Cook stated that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and that monetary policy should remain restrictive until stronger evidence of sustained disinflation emerges, reinforcing expectations of no near-term rate cuts.

Market reacts to Fed minutes and rising Treasury yields amid $40 trillion national debt

December Meeting drops to 7%5%

Investors digested Fed minutes showing appetite for rate hikes if inflation persists, alongside concerns about record national debt and Treasury buyback plans, leading to choppy rate cut expectations and a decline in December Meeting cut odds to 7%.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July Meeting

The Fed's July 28-29, 2026, meeting resulted in a hold of the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 9-3 vote including dissenters favoring a hike. This decision maintained the status quo and set the stage for market speculation about a potential cut at the September meeting, influencing price movements in the September and October Meeting options.

Markets Price in Low Probability of Rate Cuts for Rest of 2026

December Meeting drops to 11%5%

By August 2026, market consensus strongly favored no rate cuts for the remainder of the year, reflecting persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Prediction markets showed an 85% chance of zero cuts in 2026, reinforcing the Fed's hold narrative.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenters favoring hike

On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The vote was 9-3, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, signaling ongoing debate about the path of monetary policy amid inflation above target and geopolitical uncertainty.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady for fifth consecutive meeting

December Meeting dips to 14%2%

In late July, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with officials projecting year-end rates between 3.6% and 4.1%. Markets priced in potential hikes rather than cuts, reflecting diminished expectations for rate reductions in 2026.

FOMC Holds Federal Funds Rate Steady at 3.50%-3.75% with Hawkish Dissenters

December Meeting drops to 11%9%

The July 28-29 meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to hold rates steady, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability amid elevated inflation, signaling that tightening remains possible, keeping a September hike on the table.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at July 2026 FOMC meeting with divided vote

September Meeting dips to 4%1%

The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with a 9-3 vote including dissenters favoring a hike. This reflected ongoing debate about inflation risks and labor market strength, signaling a cautious stance and maintaining market uncertainty about future cuts.

Federal Reserve holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting

December Meeting drops to 14%6%

The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, reflecting ongoing economic stability and inflation concerns. Markets priced in potential rate hikes later in the year, signaling a shift away from expectations of cuts.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring hike

October Meeting drops to 16%6%

At the July 29 meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with a 9-3 vote split as three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike, indicating ongoing debate about tightening.

Federal Reserve minutes reveal dissenters favoring rate hike at July meeting

The July 28-29, 2026 FOMC minutes showed three members voted against maintaining the target range, preferring a 25 basis point increase. This highlighted ongoing internal divisions and a cautious stance on rate cuts, supporting market expectations of stable rates through mid-2026.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at July meeting with dissenting votes for hike

The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the July 28-29 meeting, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point increase. The committee reaffirmed its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns.

Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at July 2026 FOMC meeting despite dissent

December Meeting drops to 14%6%

At the July 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market strength, further dampening expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve remains on hold ahead of July 30 meeting after December 2025 cut

The Fed last cut rates in December 2025 to 3.75%, holding steady through early 2026 meetings. The July 2026 meeting was upcoming with markets watching for any signals, but no cuts had occurred yet, reflecting a cautious approach amid inflation and economic uncertainty.

Chairman Warsh Presents Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress

December Meeting dips to 12%2%

Chairman Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report, outlining the Fed’s views on economic conditions and monetary policy. This report influences market sentiment and investment strategies by providing insights into the Fed’s policy direction.

Federal Reserve Announces Leadership and Objectives of Task Forces to Advance Monetary Policy

December Meeting drops to 14%7%

The Federal Reserve announced the formation of task forces led by external advisers to improve monetary policy conduct. This initiative reflects the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment, signaling ongoing efforts to refine policy tools amid economic uncertainties.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh

December Meeting drops to 21%7%

The Fed maintained the target range at 3.50%-3.75% during the June 16-17 meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling a cautious approach amid elevated inflation and economic stability.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at June Meeting, Signals No Cuts in 2026

December Meeting drops to 19%5%

At the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed unanimously held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with the Summary of Economic Projections raising the median year-end rate and signaling no rate cuts in 2026. Inflation remained elevated, and geopolitical risks persisted, reinforcing a hold stance.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at June 2026 FOMC meeting

December Meeting plunges to 47%16%

The Fed voted unanimously to keep the interest rate paid on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its cautious stance amid persistent inflation and stable labor market conditions.

Federal Open Market Committee holds rates steady amid rising inflation and labor market strength

At the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, the committee, now under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held the federal funds rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and a strong labor market. This decision maintained low expectations for rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the decline in market probabilities for cuts at later meetings.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid rising inflation and labor market strength

December Meeting drops to 23%8%

At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, citing rising inflation and a strengthening labor market. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first public remarks, signaling a cautious approach and emphasizing data-driven policy decisions, which maintained low market expectations for rate cuts.

Fed officials signal cautious approach amid mixed economic data and inflation concerns

December Meeting drops to 20%11%

Fed officials expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts during mid-2026, highlighting mixed signals from labor market data and persistent inflation above target. This contributed to a decline in market expectations for rate cuts at upcoming meetings.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with unanimous vote, signals no cuts in 2026

In June 2026, the Fed unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The updated economic projections showed no expected rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, reflecting a hawkish shift and concerns about inflation persistence despite some labor market cooling.

April CPI surges to 3.8%, dashing hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026

December Meeting dips to 11%4%

April's Consumer Price Index showed the highest inflation in three years, with broad-based increases including core CPI, leading the Fed to signal no rate cuts in 2026 and pushing market expectations for cuts sharply lower.

BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and jobs data

December Meeting plunges to 11%16%

In May 2026, major brokerages revised their forecasts, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady for the remainder of the year due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market, pushing anticipated rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027. This dampened market expectations for cuts in the analyzed window.

President Trump publicly urges Federal Reserve to convene emergency meeting to cut rates immediately

December Meeting plunges to 47%15%

Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump called for an emergency Fed meeting to cut interest rates, increasing political pressure on the Fed. Despite this, the Fed maintained its independent stance and did not cut rates at the meeting, contributing to market uncertainty.

Fed officials project only one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation concerns

December Meeting drops to 27%9%

Fed projections showed a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, with inflation expected to remain above target. Chair Powell emphasized that rate cuts depend on economic performance and inflation progress, leading markets to reduce odds of cuts at upcoming meetings.

Federal Reserve Signals Policy Direction Following May 2026 Meeting

December Meeting plunges to 47%17%

The Fed's May 2026 meeting reinforced an adaptive monetary policy stance, emphasizing data dependency amid ongoing inflation concerns and labor market strength. Markets reacted to the Fed's cautious signals, which tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.

Federal Reserve Signals Adaptive Monetary Policy Following May Meeting

The Fed's May 2026 meeting emphasized an adaptive approach to monetary policy, guided by incoming economic data. While no rate cuts were announced, the Fed highlighted ongoing inflation concerns and labor market stability, maintaining a cautious stance that influenced market expectations for future rate moves.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at April 2026 FOMC meeting amid internal divisions

December Meeting jumps to 63%7%

The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a historic 8-4 split decision, with dissenters favoring a cut. Chair Powell confirmed it was his final appearance as Fed Chair, signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty.

Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in April meeting

The Fed held the target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid mixed economic signals. The unanimous decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions, reinforcing market expectations that no rate cuts would occur in the near term.

FOMC meeting ends with divided vote to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%

At the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted 8-4 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, the most divided vote since 1992. One member dissented in favor of a 25 basis point cut, while three opposed including an easing bias in the statement. The Fed signaled a cautious stance amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty.

FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in divided 8-4 vote

The Federal Reserve maintained the target range amid stubborn inflation and softening growth, with a historic split vote including dissent for a cut. Chair Powell confirmed it was his final appearance as Fed Chair, signaling a cautious stance on further easing.

Federal Reserve holds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in divided vote

December Meeting drops to 55%5%

The Fed voted 8-4 to hold rates steady at the April 29 meeting, the most divided since 1992, with some dissenters favoring a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and economic conditions.

Federal Reserve maintains rates at April 2026 FOMC meeting amid inflation and labor market concerns

December Meeting plunges to 47%15%

At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, citing ongoing inflation above target and a strengthening labor market. The cautious tone and lack of cuts led to further declines in market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.

Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates at April Meeting

December Meeting rises to 66%4%

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during the April 28-29 meeting, continuing its cautious stance amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. Market expectations for cuts remained subdued, with the Fed emphasizing data dependency.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation and Iran War Uncertainty

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

At the March 17-18 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict. The decision reflected ongoing caution, with one dissenting vote for a cut and projections for one rate cut later in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady amid rising inflation and economic uncertainty

December Meeting jumps to 27%5%

The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 18 meeting, with inflation data showing a surge in energy prices due to the Iran war, reinforcing a 'higher-for-longer' rate outlook and diminishing near-term cut expectations.

FOMC Minutes Reveal Majority Support for Rate Hold Amid Solid Economic Expansion

Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed most members supported holding rates steady, citing solid economic growth and inflation concerns. The minutes also indicated openness to future cuts if inflation progresses toward target, maintaining policy flexibility.

Fed Holds Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Risks

At the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted 11-1 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, citing persistent inflation above target and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced market expectations of limited easing in 2026.

FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signals one more cut in 2026

The FOMC voted 11-1 to keep rates unchanged, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The March Summary of Economic Projections forecasted one more 25bp cut in 2026, but timing remained uncertain, tempering market expectations.

Federal Reserve maintains rates amid elevated economic uncertainty

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

The Fed kept rates steady again in March, citing elevated uncertainty including the impact of the Iran war and inflation remaining above target. Officials maintained their projection of one rate cut in 2026 but markets pulled back expectations for cuts this year, reflecting in price declines for rate cut probabilities.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut US interest rates

December Meeting plunges to 12%21%

Former President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates

Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut rates immediately, increasing political pressure. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reinforcing expectations for limited cuts in 2026.

FOMC Holds Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75% Amid Elevated Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

At the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further cuts. This reinforced the cautious approach and lowered market expectations for near-term easing.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut US interest rates

October Meeting plunges to 63%15%

President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on Fed Chair Powell ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reflecting its independence.

Federal Reserve Votes 11-1 to Hold Rates Steady at March Meeting Amid Inflation Concerns

October Meeting plunges to 64%15%

The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in an 11-1 vote to maintain rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a cut. The decision reflected concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious policy stance and influencing market expectations for rate cuts later in the year.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Emphasizes Inflation Risks and Labor Market Stability at March Press Conference

October Meeting plunges to 64%15%

Following the March FOMC meeting, Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and a stable labor market, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. His remarks tempered market expectations for immediate easing, contributing to the price decline in the October and September meeting options.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 meeting amid geopolitical and inflation uncertainty

The Fed voted 11-1 to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 17-18 meeting, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran conflict, which dampened expectations for near-term cuts.

Fed officials signal openness to rate cuts later in 2026 if inflation moderates

December Meeting drops to 77%10%

New York Fed President John Williams indicated that if inflation continues to ease as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in the year, keeping the outlook for cuts open amid economic uncertainty.

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, including the Iran conflict. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a data-dependent approach, and the updated dot plot signaled no rate cuts in 2026, reducing market expectations for further easing.

New York Fed President signals flexibility on future rate cuts

December Meeting plunges to 62%15%

John Williams, President of the New York Fed, indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026. This statement kept some market hopes alive for cuts but also underscored dependence on inflation data, contributing to mixed market reactions.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

October Meeting plunges to 63%16%

The Fed voted 11-1 to keep rates steady at the March 17-18 meeting, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause the easing cycle despite political pressure for cuts.

President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates

In March 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. Despite this, the Fed maintained its scheduled meeting and did not implement emergency cuts, reflecting its independence.

Former President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates

In March 2026, former President Donald Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene an emergency meeting to cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of the March FOMC meeting, though no emergency meeting or cut occurred.

Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in first 2026 meeting

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in its January 27-28 meeting, signaling a cautious stance amid inflation remaining above target and economic uncertainty. This decision tempered market expectations for imminent rate cuts, causing initial price adjustments in the market.

Markets anticipate limited rate cuts in early 2026 amid Fed caution

As 2026 began, markets adjusted to the Fed's cautious stance, pricing in low odds for a January rate cut and expecting potential easing later in the year, reflecting the Fed's emphasis on data dependency and internal divisions.

Fed projects only one rate cut for 2026 amid economic uncertainty

In late February 2026, the Fed's projections indicated only one rate cut for the year, with officials emphasizing uncertainty due to inflation and geopolitical risks, which dampened market expectations for earlier cuts.