Recent strong August nonfarm payrolls (+162,000) and steady 4.1% unemployment have reinforced labor market resilience, while headline PCE inflation near 3.6–4.1% and core at 3.3% remain well above the 2% target amid energy and supply pressures. These factors, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and Governor Waller, have elevated market-implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, fragmenting probabilities across hike-pause sequences through December. Trader sentiment hinges on the September 11 CPI release and incoming data before the September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9 meetings, where the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range could shift based on whether disinflation resumes or growth sustains. This data dependence explains the wide dispersion, with pause-pause-pause at 32.5% but multiple hike paths collectively priced above 50%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ 33%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 14%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 14%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 11%
$14,259 Vol.
$14,259 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
11%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
14%
連続利上げ
6%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
14%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
6%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
33%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
9%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
8%
その他
7%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ 33%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 14%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 14%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 11%
$14,259 Vol.
$14,259 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
$329 Vol.
11%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
$522 Vol.
14%
連続利上げ
$231 Vol.
6%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
$474 Vol.
14%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
$618 Vol.
6%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
$11,087 Vol.
33%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
$364 Vol.
9%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
$366 Vol.
8%
その他
$269 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August nonfarm payrolls (+162,000) and steady 4.1% unemployment have reinforced labor market resilience, while headline PCE inflation near 3.6–4.1% and core at 3.3% remain well above the 2% target amid energy and supply pressures. These factors, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and Governor Waller, have elevated market-implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, fragmenting probabilities across hike-pause sequences through December. Trader sentiment hinges on the September 11 CPI release and incoming data before the September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9 meetings, where the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range could shift based on whether disinflation resumes or growth sustains. This data dependence explains the wide dispersion, with pause-pause-pause at 32.5% but multiple hike paths collectively priced above 50%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$14,259終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong August nonfarm payrolls (+162,000) and steady 4.1% unemployment have reinforced labor market resilience, while headline PCE inflation near 3.6–4.1% and core at 3.3% remain well above the 2% target amid energy and supply pressures. These factors, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and Governor Waller, have elevated market-implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, fragmenting probabilities across hike-pause sequences through December. Trader sentiment hinges on the September 11 CPI release and incoming data before the September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9 meetings, where the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range could shift based on whether disinflation resumes or growth sustains. This data dependence explains the wide dispersion, with pause-pause-pause at 32.5% but multiple hike paths collectively priced above 50%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$14,259終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong August nonfarm payrolls (+162,000) and steady 4.1% unemployment have reinforced labor market resilience, while headline PCE inflation near 3.6–4.1% and core at 3.3% remain well above the 2% target amid energy and supply pressures. These factors, alongside hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and Governor Waller, have elevated market-implied odds of a September hike to roughly 60%, fragmenting probabilities across hike-pause sequences through December. Trader sentiment hinges on the September 11 CPI release and incoming data before the September 15–16, October 27–28, and December 8–9 meetings, where the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds range could shift based on whether disinflation resumes or growth sustains. This data dependence explains the wide dispersion, with pause-pause-pause at 32.5% but multiple hike paths collectively priced above 50%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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