xAI’s delayed release of the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 large language model, following Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement of needed reinforcement-learning refinements to fix response-length penalties and task persistence, is the main factor behind the tightly clustered probabilities. Earlier targets, including a September 12 window, have slipped repeatedly amid supplemental SpaceX data training and competitive pressure from other labs preparing September updates. Traders see roughly even odds for a mid-September drop because the model remains unreleased as of September 16, yet final tuning appears close to completion. Key near-term catalysts include any xAI model-card publication, API identifier, or Musk confirmation that could resolve the market within days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月23日 11.3%
9月20日 7.0%
9月24日 5.0%
9月22日 3.3%
$11,894 Vol.
$11,894 Vol.
2026/09/16
9月16日
37%
9月17日
38%
9月18日
38%
9月19日
21%
9月20日
8%
9月21日
26%
9月22日
3%
9月23日
16%
9月24日
18%
9月25日
2%
9月26日
1%
9月27日
2%
9月28日
7%
9月29日
2%
9月30日
1%
9月30日までにリリースなし
14%
9月23日 11.3%
9月20日 7.0%
9月24日 5.0%
9月22日 3.3%
$11,894 Vol.
$11,894 Vol.
2026/09/16
9月16日
$215 Vol.
37%
9月17日
$215 Vol.
38%
9月18日
$437 Vol.
38%
9月19日
$793 Vol.
21%
9月20日
$680 Vol.
8%
9月21日
$567 Vol.
26%
9月22日
$353 Vol.
3%
9月23日
$625 Vol.
16%
9月24日
$513 Vol.
18%
9月25日
$610 Vol.
2%
9月26日
$541 Vol.
1%
9月27日
$594 Vol.
2%
9月28日
$461 Vol.
7%
9月29日
$387 Vol.
2%
9月30日
$611 Vol.
1%
9月30日までにリリースなし
$575 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s delayed release of the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 large language model, following Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement of needed reinforcement-learning refinements to fix response-length penalties and task persistence, is the main factor behind the tightly clustered probabilities. Earlier targets, including a September 12 window, have slipped repeatedly amid supplemental SpaceX data training and competitive pressure from other labs preparing September updates. Traders see roughly even odds for a mid-September drop because the model remains unreleased as of September 16, yet final tuning appears close to completion. Key near-term catalysts include any xAI model-card publication, API identifier, or Musk confirmation that could resolve the market within days.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
音量
$11,894終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s delayed release of the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 large language model, following Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement of needed reinforcement-learning refinements to fix response-length penalties and task persistence, is the main factor behind the tightly clustered probabilities. Earlier targets, including a September 12 window, have slipped repeatedly amid supplemental SpaceX data training and competitive pressure from other labs preparing September updates. Traders see roughly even odds for a mid-September drop because the model remains unreleased as of September 16, yet final tuning appears close to completion. Key near-term catalysts include any xAI model-card publication, API identifier, or Musk confirmation that could resolve the market within days.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$11,894終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...xAI’s delayed release of the 2.1-trillion-parameter Grok 4.7 large language model, following Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement of needed reinforcement-learning refinements to fix response-length penalties and task persistence, is the main factor behind the tightly clustered probabilities. Earlier targets, including a September 12 window, have slipped repeatedly amid supplemental SpaceX data training and competitive pressure from other labs preparing September updates. Traders see roughly even odds for a mid-September drop because the model remains unreleased as of September 16, yet final tuning appears close to completion. Key near-term catalysts include any xAI model-card publication, API identifier, or Musk confirmation that could resolve the market within days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問