**RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary with strong White House alignment and no signs of imminent departure.** As of mid-September 2026, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues actively leading the Department of Health and Human Services, including a keynote address at a Children’s Health Defense conference where he reaffirmed his commitment to revising vaccine guidance and other MAHA priorities, stating he would “die with my boots on.” President Trump’s administration has sustained backing for these efforts despite ongoing legal challenges, judicial stays on certain advisory committee changes, and calls for resignation from public health organizations. Senate confirmation occurred in February 2025, followed by departmental reorganizations and policy shifts that traders view as evidence of entrenched support. With roughly six weeks until October 31, 2026, the absence of any resignation announcements, confirmation hearings, or administration signals of removal has kept implied probabilities favoring continuity at 79% for “No.” Upcoming midterm-related pressures or further court rulings could still introduce volatility, but current developments show no catalyst for an exit within the resolution window.