The Senate's repeated failure to advance H.R. 22 or related SAVE America Act versions explains the strong trader consensus against enactment in 2026. The House passed the measure in February, but Senate attempts to attach it to must-pass bills such as DHS appropriations and the NDAA fell short in June and July, with four Republicans joining Democrats to block progress on votes requiring 60 supporters to overcome a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated there is no immediate plan to revisit the legislation on the floor, and no procedural changes to eliminate the supermajority threshold have materialized. With the legislative calendar tightening ahead of the midterms and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the bill faces significant procedural and vote-count barriers that have kept implied probabilities for final passage and presidential signature near zero.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$191,443 Vol.
$191,443 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$191,443 Vol.
$191,443 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's repeated failure to advance H.R. 22 or related SAVE America Act versions explains the strong trader consensus against enactment in 2026. The House passed the measure in February, but Senate attempts to attach it to must-pass bills such as DHS appropriations and the NDAA fell short in June and July, with four Republicans joining Democrats to block progress on votes requiring 60 supporters to overcome a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated there is no immediate plan to revisit the legislation on the floor, and no procedural changes to eliminate the supermajority threshold have materialized. With the legislative calendar tightening ahead of the midterms and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the bill faces significant procedural and vote-count barriers that have kept implied probabilities for final passage and presidential signature near zero.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
音量
$191,443終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Senate's repeated failure to advance H.R. 22 or related SAVE America Act versions explains the strong trader consensus against enactment in 2026. The House passed the measure in February, but Senate attempts to attach it to must-pass bills such as DHS appropriations and the NDAA fell short in June and July, with four Republicans joining Democrats to block progress on votes requiring 60 supporters to overcome a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated there is no immediate plan to revisit the legislation on the floor, and no procedural changes to eliminate the supermajority threshold have materialized. With the legislative calendar tightening ahead of the midterms and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the bill faces significant procedural and vote-count barriers that have kept implied probabilities for final passage and presidential signature near zero.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$191,443終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Senate's repeated failure to advance H.R. 22 or related SAVE America Act versions explains the strong trader consensus against enactment in 2026. The House passed the measure in February, but Senate attempts to attach it to must-pass bills such as DHS appropriations and the NDAA fell short in June and July, with four Republicans joining Democrats to block progress on votes requiring 60 supporters to overcome a filibuster. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated there is no immediate plan to revisit the legislation on the floor, and no procedural changes to eliminate the supermajority threshold have materialized. With the legislative calendar tightening ahead of the midterms and competing priorities dominating the agenda, the bill faces significant procedural and vote-count barriers that have kept implied probabilities for final passage and presidential signature near zero.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問