Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations following the February 2026 conflict and June memorandum of understanding have prioritized diplomacy, sanctions relief, and limited economic incentives over further escalation, with both sides focused on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues amid ongoing but contained strikes. U.S. military actions have centered on airstrikes and naval measures rather than ground operations, while Iranian leadership losses and infrastructure damage have lowered immediate threats. Domestic pressures including midterm elections, munitions constraints, and economic impacts have further tempered appetite for a full-scale invasion in the narrow window remaining before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these diplomatic and practical barriers, though unresolved proxy tensions and negotiation breakdowns could still shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
17% 確率
$66,396,996 Vol.
$66,396,996 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
17% 確率
$66,396,996 Vol.
$66,396,996 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations following the February 2026 conflict and June memorandum of understanding have prioritized diplomacy, sanctions relief, and limited economic incentives over further escalation, with both sides focused on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues amid ongoing but contained strikes. U.S. military actions have centered on airstrikes and naval measures rather than ground operations, while Iranian leadership losses and infrastructure damage have lowered immediate threats. Domestic pressures including midterm elections, munitions constraints, and economic impacts have further tempered appetite for a full-scale invasion in the narrow window remaining before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these diplomatic and practical barriers, though unresolved proxy tensions and negotiation breakdowns could still shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$66,396,996終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations following the February 2026 conflict and June memorandum of understanding have prioritized diplomacy, sanctions relief, and limited economic incentives over further escalation, with both sides focused on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues amid ongoing but contained strikes. U.S. military actions have centered on airstrikes and naval measures rather than ground operations, while Iranian leadership losses and infrastructure damage have lowered immediate threats. Domestic pressures including midterm elections, munitions constraints, and economic impacts have further tempered appetite for a full-scale invasion in the narrow window remaining before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these diplomatic and practical barriers, though unresolved proxy tensions and negotiation breakdowns could still shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$66,396,996終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations following the February 2026 conflict and June memorandum of understanding have prioritized diplomacy, sanctions relief, and limited economic incentives over further escalation, with both sides focused on the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues amid ongoing but contained strikes. U.S. military actions have centered on airstrikes and naval measures rather than ground operations, while Iranian leadership losses and infrastructure damage have lowered immediate threats. Domestic pressures including midterm elections, munitions constraints, and economic impacts have further tempered appetite for a full-scale invasion in the narrow window remaining before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these diplomatic and practical barriers, though unresolved proxy tensions and negotiation breakdowns could still shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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