Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8,000ドル超 29%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 22%
6,500〜7,000ドル 10%
$41,371 Vol.
$41,371 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
7%
6,500〜7,000ドル
10%
7,000～7,500ドル
22%
7,500～8,000ドル
23%
8,000ドル超
38%
8,000ドル超 29%
7,500～8,000ドル 23%
7,000～7,500ドル 22%
6,500〜7,000ドル 10%
$41,371 Vol.
$41,371 Vol.
2026/12/31
6,000ドル未満
$21,017 Vol.
6%
6,000～6,500ドル
$2,365 Vol.
7%
6,500〜7,000ドル
$4,577 Vol.
10%
7,000～7,500ドル
$2,726 Vol.
22%
7,500～8,000ドル
$4,204 Vol.
23%
8,000ドル超
$6,482 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
音量
$41,371終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
音量
$41,371終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (37.5%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026, followed by the 7,500-8,000 band at 22.5%, reflecting optimism around robust earnings growth and AI-driven revenue gains that have lifted the index to roughly 7,719 amid August peaks near 7,799. Recent strength in Q2 results, with broad beats and upward EPS revisions, underpins this positioning, though rising Treasury yields above 4.8% after solid August jobs data and hawkish Fed signals introduce downside risks. The distribution captures elevated but contested expectations, with only 5.5% odds below 6,000, as traders weigh valuation levels against macro catalysts ahead of the September FOMC and CPI releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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