Incumbent Pat Fallon maintains a commanding lead in the TX-04 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance, including strong 2024 presidential and House margins, and its Solid Republican ratings from major forecasters. Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, while Democrat Jason Pearce narrowly advanced from a competitive primary. Fallon's substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared to Pearce's minimal reserves, further reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. Potential shifts could stem from late national political realignments, major scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors make such changes improbable before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
2026/11/02
パット・ファロン（共和党）
95%
ジェイソン・ピアース（民主党）
6%
$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
2026/11/02
パット・ファロン（共和党）
$21,766 Vol.
95%
ジェイソン・ピアース（民主党）
$18,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Pat Fallon maintains a commanding lead in the TX-04 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance, including strong 2024 presidential and House margins, and its Solid Republican ratings from major forecasters. Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, while Democrat Jason Pearce narrowly advanced from a competitive primary. Fallon's substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared to Pearce's minimal reserves, further reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. Potential shifts could stem from late national political realignments, major scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors make such changes improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$39,977終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Pat Fallon maintains a commanding lead in the TX-04 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance, including strong 2024 presidential and House margins, and its Solid Republican ratings from major forecasters. Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, while Democrat Jason Pearce narrowly advanced from a competitive primary. Fallon's substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared to Pearce's minimal reserves, further reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. Potential shifts could stem from late national political realignments, major scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors make such changes improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$39,977終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Pat Fallon maintains a commanding lead in the TX-04 general election, reflecting the district's consistent Republican performance, including strong 2024 presidential and House margins, and its Solid Republican ratings from major forecasters. Fallon secured his party's nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary, while Democrat Jason Pearce narrowly advanced from a competitive primary. Fallon's substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million in cash on hand compared to Pearce's minimal reserves, further reinforces trader consensus on the outcome. Potential shifts could stem from late national political realignments, major scandals, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban areas, though structural factors make such changes improbable before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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