**President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of market sentiment.** The announcement cited alleged low-yield explosive activities by those countries, which they deny, and followed the expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that planned activities would initially involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and systems evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium. As of mid-2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, and administration statements indicate ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on yield-producing tests. Congressional measures, including bills requiring legislative approval before any resumption, add procedural hurdles. Readiness timelines for underground explosive testing historically range from 24–36 months, and no scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear poised to trigger a test.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$795,287 Vol.
2026/09/30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$795,287 Vol.
2026年9月30日
$57,555 Vol.
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of market sentiment.** The announcement cited alleged low-yield explosive activities by those countries, which they deny, and followed the expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that planned activities would initially involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and systems evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium. As of mid-2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, and administration statements indicate ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on yield-producing tests. Congressional measures, including bills requiring legislative approval before any resumption, add procedural hurdles. Readiness timelines for underground explosive testing historically range from 24–36 months, and no scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear poised to trigger a test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$795,287終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of market sentiment.** The announcement cited alleged low-yield explosive activities by those countries, which they deny, and followed the expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that planned activities would initially involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and systems evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium. As of mid-2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, and administration statements indicate ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on yield-producing tests. Congressional measures, including bills requiring legislative approval before any resumption, add procedural hurdles. Readiness timelines for underground explosive testing historically range from 24–36 months, and no scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear poised to trigger a test.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$795,287終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of market sentiment.** The announcement cited alleged low-yield explosive activities by those countries, which they deny, and followed the expiration of New START in February 2026. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that planned activities would initially involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and systems evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the post-1992 moratorium. As of mid-2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred, and administration statements indicate ongoing internal assessments without a final decision on yield-producing tests. Congressional measures, including bills requiring legislative approval before any resumption, add procedural hurdles. Readiness timelines for underground explosive testing historically range from 24–36 months, and no scheduled events in the immediate resolution window appear poised to trigger a test.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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