Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most centrifuges inoperable and burying stockpiles of up to 60 percent enriched uranium under rubble with no IAEA verification since June 2025. Tehran has not conducted enrichment or weaponization activities amid the resulting constraints, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Internal debates on nuclear posture have intensified following leadership changes, yet official policy continues to emphasize a non-weapons path under international scrutiny. Realistic shifts could stem from resumed enrichment at surviving underground sites, accelerated recovery efforts, or altered strategic decisions if sanctions relief negotiations stall.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$257,146 Vol.
$257,146 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$257,146 Vol.
$257,146 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most centrifuges inoperable and burying stockpiles of up to 60 percent enriched uranium under rubble with no IAEA verification since June 2025. Tehran has not conducted enrichment or weaponization activities amid the resulting constraints, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Internal debates on nuclear posture have intensified following leadership changes, yet official policy continues to emphasize a non-weapons path under international scrutiny. Realistic shifts could stem from resumed enrichment at surviving underground sites, accelerated recovery efforts, or altered strategic decisions if sanctions relief negotiations stall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$257,146終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most centrifuges inoperable and burying stockpiles of up to 60 percent enriched uranium under rubble with no IAEA verification since June 2025. Tehran has not conducted enrichment or weaponization activities amid the resulting constraints, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Internal debates on nuclear posture have intensified following leadership changes, yet official policy continues to emphasize a non-weapons path under international scrutiny. Realistic shifts could stem from resumed enrichment at surviving underground sites, accelerated recovery efforts, or altered strategic decisions if sanctions relief negotiations stall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$257,146終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most centrifuges inoperable and burying stockpiles of up to 60 percent enriched uranium under rubble with no IAEA verification since June 2025. Tehran has not conducted enrichment or weaponization activities amid the resulting constraints, aligning with trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. Internal debates on nuclear posture have intensified following leadership changes, yet official policy continues to emphasize a non-weapons path under international scrutiny. Realistic shifts could stem from resumed enrichment at surviving underground sites, accelerated recovery efforts, or altered strategic decisions if sanctions relief negotiations stall.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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