Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its nuclear program largely dormant with no verified active enrichment underway. Roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium remains largely inaccessible under rubble or in contested storage, while IAEA inspectors lack access to bombed facilities and cannot confirm stockpile status or centrifuge conditions. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding seek IAEA-supervised downblending and verification as part of a broader ceasefire framework, reinforcing trader expectations that weaponization remains blocked through year-end. Peripheral hardline commentary has normalized weapons discussions, yet official policy shows no authorization for production, and reconstruction signals at sites like Pickaxe Mountain have not translated into rapid capability recovery. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected stockpile movement represent the main variables that could still alter the timeline.