**Trader consensus heavily favors no new U.S. charges tied to the post-December 2025 Epstein file releases, reflected in the 90% implied probability for “No.”** The Department of Justice completed its review of millions of pages released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, including the major January 2026 tranche, and concluded that the materials lacked sufficient corroborated evidence to support indictments against previously uncharged individuals. Official statements from senior DOJ officials reaffirmed earlier assessments that unverified allegations and references to associates do not meet prosecutorial thresholds. Congressional oversight through the House Oversight Committee has produced hearings, transcripts, subpoenas, and contempt referrals—such as the September 2026 action against Leon Black—along with limited referrals for further investigation, yet these steps have not yielded formal charges directly attributable to the disclosures. International developments, including UK actions, fall outside U.S. jurisdiction and do not affect the market’s U.S.-focused resolution criteria. With the December 31, 2026 deadline approaching and no qualifying indictments to date, the pricing aligns with the absence of prosecutable evidence emerging from the releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
10% 確率
$140,287 Vol.
$140,287 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
10% 確率
$140,287 Vol.
$140,287 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no new U.S. charges tied to the post-December 2025 Epstein file releases, reflected in the 90% implied probability for “No.”** The Department of Justice completed its review of millions of pages released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, including the major January 2026 tranche, and concluded that the materials lacked sufficient corroborated evidence to support indictments against previously uncharged individuals. Official statements from senior DOJ officials reaffirmed earlier assessments that unverified allegations and references to associates do not meet prosecutorial thresholds.
Congressional oversight through the House Oversight Committee has produced hearings, transcripts, subpoenas, and contempt referrals—such as the September 2026 action against Leon Black—along with limited referrals for further investigation, yet these steps have not yielded formal charges directly attributable to the disclosures. International developments, including UK actions, fall outside U.S. jurisdiction and do not affect the market’s U.S.-focused resolution criteria. With the December 31, 2026 deadline approaching and no qualifying indictments to date, the pricing aligns with the absence of prosecutable evidence emerging from the releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
音量
$140,287終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors no new U.S. charges tied to the post-December 2025 Epstein file releases, reflected in the 90% implied probability for “No.”** The Department of Justice completed its review of millions of pages released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, including the major January 2026 tranche, and concluded that the materials lacked sufficient corroborated evidence to support indictments against previously uncharged individuals. Official statements from senior DOJ officials reaffirmed earlier assessments that unverified allegations and references to associates do not meet prosecutorial thresholds.
Congressional oversight through the House Oversight Committee has produced hearings, transcripts, subpoenas, and contempt referrals—such as the September 2026 action against Leon Black—along with limited referrals for further investigation, yet these steps have not yielded formal charges directly attributable to the disclosures. International developments, including UK actions, fall outside U.S. jurisdiction and do not affect the market’s U.S.-focused resolution criteria. With the December 31, 2026 deadline approaching and no qualifying indictments to date, the pricing aligns with the absence of prosecutable evidence emerging from the releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual, and the cause of that charge or indictment is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying charge or indictment must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of the charge or indictment may be established through official charging documents, official information from law enforcement authorities, relevant legal entities, or the US federal government, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the charge/indictment to information contained in those released files. Charges or indictments driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$140,287終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors no new U.S. charges tied to the post-December 2025 Epstein file releases, reflected in the 90% implied probability for “No.”** The Department of Justice completed its review of millions of pages released under the Epstein Files Transparency Act, including the major January 2026 tranche, and concluded that the materials lacked sufficient corroborated evidence to support indictments against previously uncharged individuals. Official statements from senior DOJ officials reaffirmed earlier assessments that unverified allegations and references to associates do not meet prosecutorial thresholds. Congressional oversight through the House Oversight Committee has produced hearings, transcripts, subpoenas, and contempt referrals—such as the September 2026 action against Leon Black—along with limited referrals for further investigation, yet these steps have not yielded formal charges directly attributable to the disclosures. International developments, including UK actions, fall outside U.S. jurisdiction and do not affect the market’s U.S.-focused resolution criteria. With the December 31, 2026 deadline approaching and no qualifying indictments to date, the pricing aligns with the absence of prosecutable evidence emerging from the releases.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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